The war in Ukraine has not received as much attention in the capitalist media in the West as it did previously. In one sense, this is understandable given developments in the Middle East. This includes the horrific genocidal war unleashed by the Israeli state in Gaza and the escalating conflict in the region, with Israeli forces conducting a full-scale invasion and bombing campaign in Lebanon aiming to deal a devastating blow to Iran’s ally Hezbollah. But it is the exchange of direct volleys of rockets between Iran and Israel in recent weeks that show most clearly the danger of even further escalation.
The relative lack of focus on Ukraine also reflects the complete quagmire that this war has become for US imperialism and its allies. From their perspective, the less said about it in recent months the better. However, this has not prevented the continued escalation of this bloody conflict, with the invasion by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia in August marking a new turning point.
The brutal invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military began in February 2022. International Socialist Alternative immediately called for Russian troops to leave and defended Ukraine’s right to self determination, but we also consistently defended the right of self determination of national minorities, including in the Donbass and the Crimean peninsula — which Russian forces occupied in 2014 — to determine their future without pressure from occupying forces.
While in 2022 there were initially elements of popular resistance to the Russian invasion, this war is primarily a proxy conflict between rival imperialist blocs. Western imperialism saw an opportunity to weaken Russia, a key ally of Chinese imperialism. In fact the US had given support to the Ukrainian government in its low level war with pro-Russian forces going back to 2014. Even a decade ago, the Ukrainian ruling class was already split between a pro-Western and a pro-Russian wing. Promoting this pro-Western wing was part of the relentless drive by the US to push NATO ever further eastward despite commitments they made not to do precisely this at the end of the Cold War after the collapse of the Soviet bloc.
The current war in Ukraine has had very little in common with a genuine war of national and social liberation, despite the hopes of millions of ordinary Ukrainians supporting the Zelensky regime in order to defend their homes and families. The Zelensky regime in reality serves the interests of Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchs who in turn are completely tied to Western imperialism.
US imperialism also saw Russia’s invasion as an opportunity to reassert itself in the wake of the humiliating exit from Afghanistan in 2021. The war in Ukraine also enabled them to cohere their bloc alliance against Chinese imperialism and its allies. Only a few years ago, Germany, which is now playing a key role in backing the Zelensky government and has supported various measures against China, was very reluctant to disrupt its close economic ties with both Russia and China.
In this and other ways, the war in Ukraine has played a key role in accelerating the process of deglobalization and a rising pre-war economy in both blocs, key features of the new era of inter imperialist conflict. From the beginning, ISA also warned of the possibility of this becoming a bloody quagmire with an enormous danger of escalation. The latest example is Zelensky, along with sections of the Western media, amplifying reports of North Korean troops having entered Russia and preparing to fight Ukrainian forces in Kursk or elsewhere on the frontline. He claims the war is now “beyond borders,” a situation he helped create, and criticizes the US for not escalating even further.
How the War Evolved
Western intervention rapidly escalated after Russia’s invasion. A massive transfer of Western weapons and war materiel began in 2022; not just artillery shells but armored vehicles, F16 fighter jets and long-range rockets. The US alone has pledged $174 billion in military and economic assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.
Advances made by Ukraine in the fall of 2022 (including seizure of territory near Kharkiv and in Kherson) led to exaggerated claims in the Western media. This propaganda campaign accelerated in the months leading up to the overhyped Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring and summer of 2023, as Western military shipments arrived in large quantities. US imperialism confidently predicted that Western arms could be decisive to the collapse of the Russian military along a wide front and that the Ukrainian military could even retake the Crimean peninsula, without direct NATO involvement.
In retrospect, it is clear that despite profound weaknesses in the Russian military at the start of the war, this idea of imminent Russian collapse was largely delusional. It was certainly stoked further by the mutiny of Wagner Group mercenary forces in June 2023 under Yevgeny Prigozhin. He led an armored column towards Moscow from the frontlines but there was little evidence at the time of other forces in the Russian military being prepared to join him. The rebellion ended without a major fight but Prigozhin, who had been a close Putin ally, died soon after along with a number of Wagner commanders in a suspicious plane crash.
Despite all the talk of “liberating” all of Ukrainian territory, the real Western war aim was to strike a blow at the Chinese led bloc by “degrading” the Russian military. And while the US claimed it was not seeking “regime change” in Russia, it was clear that overthrowing Putin and even the breakup of the Russian federation were increasingly being discussed by the US administration and others in NATO. The critical nature of the alliance of Russia and China is illustrated by their shared border which is the same length as the distance between New York and Seattle.
However, as the war went on, the Russian military plugged various holes, beginning with the building of a deadly set of fortifications across Southern and Eastern Ukraine including virtually impassable minefields. This effectively prevented the Ukrainian army from making further advances. The Russian military also worked to undermine Ukraine and NATO’s technological advantages including in electronic warfare and the use of drones. They turned Russia into an all-out war economy while receiving significant levels of direct and indirect military aid from North Korea (millions of artillery rounds), Iran (drones), as well as China (advanced mechanical parts). Extensive Western sanctions failed to cripple the Russian economy, with China in particular serving as a lifeline.
The war also became a lot bloodier. The Wall Street Journal, citing intelligence sources, reported in September that the total casualties — dead and wounded — are approaching one million. Ukraine lost a huge number of soldiers in the “meatgrinder” fight to defend Bakhmut which ended last spring after 10 horrible months with Russian forces prevailing. This became the template for the next phase of the war.
In recent months, the Russian military has seized a series of towns in the Donbas including Avdiivka and Vuhledar. They are now closing in Pokrovsk, an important logistics base and key transport hub for Ukrainian forces in the East, as well as Chasiv Yar.
The Russian forces have also sustained massive casualties. But Russia has a huge advantage in manpower given that their population is over three times the size of Ukraine’s.
The position of the Ukrainian regime appears increasingly precarious as its military struggles to replenish its forces. Police now hunt Ukrainian men who are evading military call-up, even at music venues. Like the Russian military, they have been forced to rely in part on signing up convicts.
Furthermore, if Russian troops take Pokrovsk, they could shut down the massive coal mines nearby, which provide cheap power to Ukraine’s heavy industry. After all, the investment banks that have pledged billions to help rebuild Ukraine are doing so on the basis of making hefty returns.
Nevertheless, there appears to be little prospect of the Russian military being able to completely rout Ukrainian forces, though they could seize full control of the Donbas — a key Russian goal — in the next period. US imperialism is also deeply committed to Ukraine not collapsing.
On the other hand, the Western media is increasingly reporting that there is significant war weariness among Russian forces. Putin has up until now avoided imposing a full military draft and there are claims that the Russian military is offering bonus payouts to recruits that amount to 15 years at the average salary.
The Invasion of Kursk
The Ukrainian military incursion two months ago into Russian territory in the Kursk region, seizing several hundred square miles, is a significant escalation. It is also an act of desperation to shift the dynamic in the war given increasing losses in the Donbas.
The danger of further escalation by Zelensky and the West, in turn provoking a major response from Russia, has grown significantly because of the Kursk invasion. In particular, Zelensky has pushed, along with elements in NATO, for Ukraine to be allowed to use Western long-range weapons within Russian territory to hit targets even further into Russia. Meanwhile, the Russian regime has claimed that the long-range missiles in question will be equivalent to NATO entering the war directly. As Robert David English, associate professor of international foreign policy and defense analysis at the University of Southern California (USC) points out in Al Jazeera:
“In fact, by the laws of war, [the NATO role in providing] targeting support already makes the United States a combatant in the war because we are directly facilitating armed attacks. Now the US either denies or simply doesn’t comment on that part of their aid to Ukraine, but we all know that Ukraine doesn’t possess a fleet of intelligence satellites or high-altitude surveillance drones. So it’s not like NATO would be going from hands-off to involved, it’s just an increasing degree of involvement.”
While this is true, this is still a major step.
A whole wing of the establishment has been blatantly beating the drums for escalation for months, playing down the dangers, saying Ukraine has gone over many “red lines” without significant Russian response. For weeks, there have been reports that while Biden and the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain reluctant, the US is preparing to give its blessing.
In a typical New York Times news article (September 12) we read the following:
“To a growing number of military analysts and former US officials, the administration’s reticence makes no sense, especially since, they say, Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has yet to elicit an escalatory response from Moscow.
“‘Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate,’ 17 former ambassadors and generals wrote in a letter to the administration this week. ‘We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own — including Crimea and Kursk — with these weapons and Moscow’s response remains unchanged.’”
So nothing to worry about! Putin has repeatedly warned that long-range strikes “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia.” The insane and reckless drive to greenlight Ukrainian use of long-range missiles within Russia, as though Russia was not a nuclear power, has been justified as necessary to give the Ukrainian regime a stronger position in future negotiations with Putin.
Now the West is making its own claims about Russian escalation. There have been a series of reports stating that thousands of North Korean troops — the Pentagon now says 10,000 — have entered Russia. It is also claimed that thousands are already on their way to join the fight in Kursk as Russian forces increasingly push to expel the Ukrainians from the region. But most importantly the Russian escalation is used to justify the Western escalation. The link is now made explicitly as reported by Reuters:
“The US will not impose new limits on Ukraine’s use of American weapons if North Korea joins Russia’s war, the Pentagon said on Monday, as NATO said North Korean military units had been deployed to the Kursk region in Russia.” (October 29)
The Stalemate and the U.S. Election
Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance have proposed a negotiated solution to the war including freezing the front line, a demilitarized zone and agreeing that Ukraine remains a “neutral” country, i.e. refusing to join NATO. This has been portrayed by the Democrats as a major betrayal of Ukraine and the commitment to help them win back all territory occupied by Russia. But as the New York Times revealed several weeks ago, (9/23/24), since the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, “European officials have spoken increasingly in private about Ukraine’s slim chances of recovering much lost land.”
Early in the war the Zelensky regime was prepared to end the war on these terms, but the US and Britain categorically opposed this because it did not suit their interests.
Two years later, with hundreds of thousands dead and wounded and massive expenditure of resources, the Ukrainians have lost many of the gains they made in 2022 and now have no realistic path to retaking the whole of what they claim as their national territory, short of full-scale deployment of NATO forces. This would then no longer be a proxy war. It is also very unlikely at this stage.
Despite Trump’s claim that he opposes the war and strong opposition from a section of Republicans, he gave his approval to the massive $80 billion package agreed by Congress last summer. Clearly, he was not prepared, push come to shove, to see Ukraine collapse. But the underlying Trump priority and ultimately US imperialism’s priority is the conflict with China.
In reality, while there are differences — Trump clearly favors trying to break Putin from his alliance with China as opposed to the so-far failed NATO strategy — the different camps in the US are moving towards a common position of trying to end this phase of the war and pivot to the Indo Pacific. But will Putin agree to negotiations when he appears to have the advantage?
And now both sides seem prepared to escalate to gain the clearest advantage going into the next phase. This scenario is full of potential dangers and miscalculations just like the Middle East. This reflects the literal insanity of the imperialist warmongers of all stripes. It is time for working people to wake up and start pushing back against the tide of war and ever more war.
Sharpening Inter-Imperialist Conflict
There are three key arenas of the inter-imperialist conflict between US and Chinese imperialism. These include the Indo-Pacific, especially the Western Pacific, including the South China Sea and Taiwan; the Middle East; and the war in Ukraine. There are other, incredibly bloody conflicts, like the war in Sudan, where the warring sides also seek support from the main imperialist countries or are courted by them.
In 2022 and 2023, international attention focused on Ukraine. Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the horrific genocidal war waged by the Israeli state against Palestinians in Gaza, attention centered on the Middle East. In reality both of these conflicts have had an enormous element of escalation driven by forces on both sides who are only partly under the control of the key imperialist powers.
But in both cases, there are moments that show with crystal clarity how these conflicts are connected to wider processes. In the Middle East, US imperialism engaged in hand-wringing and criticism of its Israeli ally about its relentless bombing and deliberate efforts to starve the population in Gaza while still supplying the weapons for the slaughter. But when Iran, now a fully committed part of the Chinese-led bloc, replied to a series of Israeli assassinations of its allies by launching rockets in April, all criticism by the US dropped; instead they proclaimed their “ironclad” support for Israel. And now when North Korean troops are allegedly moving towards the Kursk region, US objections to Ukrainian escalatory moves now also magically disappear.
At every point, the sharpening inter-imperialist conflict unfolds horrific new vistas. Imperialist war and the day to day “normal” role of imperialist exploitation of poor countries is part of the DNA of modern capitalism. The only way ultimately to bring this dynamic to an end is for the working class to take power out of the hands of the capitalist class and begin constructing a global socialist society. The first step is to build a mass internationalist, working class-centered antiwar movement that is consistent and opposes all sides in the inter-imperialist conflict.
