Turmoil and crises are deepening in Syria. Early March saw armed confrontations which left over 1,500 dead. The economy is in free fall, with more than 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line. Armed forces from Israel and Turkey have established bases and conduct raids on Syrian territory.
The initial relief and celebrations of the days following the collapse of the brutal Assad dictatorship in December are gone. Three months later, the new regime under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa and his organisation, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is facing growing criticism.
It did not come to power through a revolution or a civil war. Assad’s army and police just fled and collapsed when forces led by HTS advanced to Damascus via Aleppo and Homs. Three months later, the regime is squeezed from all directions, with little or no progress to show for it.
The HTS was in control of Idlib region in the north-west for about a decade, relying on Turkish support for trade, currency, electricity and more. The new Syrian government and its institutions have mostly been transferred from Idlib to the capital. That includes the prime minister, the new dean at Damascus university, imams at the largest mosques and two brothers of Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Since December, the islamist al-Sharaa has prioritised having international sanctions lifted and attracting foreign capital. He has promoted privatisations and market solutions, a “capitalist to the core, said an oilman who saw him recently in Damascus,” reported The Economist.
To appease western imperialism and promise stability, but also reflecting the relative weakness of his regime, al-Sharaa made promises about minority rights, including participation in the regime. He also closed down the huge production and sales of the drug captagon, a main source of income for Assad.
Assad’s army has been dissolved, and most of its airforce and fleet was destroyed by Israeli bombings. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers lost their incomes and are possible recruits for former Assad officers if they start mobilising against the new regime.
The entire state apparatus has been purged. “By some estimates, almost half the old regime’s 1.3m government workers have been dismissed.” (The Economist)
For security and policing, the new regime relies on different islamist militias, among which HTS forces, numbering 30,000, are the best organised, but a minority nevertheless.
All political parties were declared dissolved by the new regime, combined with promises of elections and a transitional government from 1 March. Now, the regime says elections are to be held in four years and the transitional government has still not been formed.
Steps towards islamisation have been taken, but mainly at the local level, with Friday prayers in universities and the beginning of separation of girls and boys in some schools. Among hardcore islamists there is criticism of al-Sharaa being too pragmatic and slow.
8-fold increase in the price of bread
Over 90 percent of the population are estimated to live below the poverty line. Following its new “market economy” course, the government cut bread subsidies, increasing the price eightfold.
Hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs, most of them former state officials. But even for those who still have some savings, there is an extreme shortage of cash. Queuing at the ATM takes hours, and the maximum amount anyone can withdraw is 30 dollars.
Most families can’t buy the food they need. The remaining state employees have been promised a 400% pay rise, but it has not been implemented.
The long civil war and the dictatorship destroyed the economy. Since 2011, GDP has fallen by 85% and exports by 90%. Production of oil and gas dropped drastically, affecting export incomes and electricity production. Even the capital Damascus only has a few hours of electricity daily.
Of a population of 20 million, 6 million fled abroad during the war and 7 million became refugees within the country. The task to rebuild Syria is enormous. It’s estimated that 4.5 million homes, a third of all residences, are destroyed. Schools, hospitals and infrastructure everywhere need to be rebuilt.
For the new government, lifting sanctions from the Assad era is urgent. So far, the EU and the UK have lifted some, but US rules — a ban on any dealings with Syria — are still in place. The lifting of the sanctions is a condition for capital promised from Qatar and other Gulf states, who supported the islamist militias against Assad.
Divided country, failed state
The armed fighting and massacres last week scared both the regime and the population. More than 1,500 were killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) and thousands have fled their homes, many of them to Lebanon.
Within a few days, shootings and clashes between state security forces and former Assad supporters escalated. A former commander in Assad’s army, Ghiath Dalla, proclaimed a new group, the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria, and called for the government to be overthrown. Islamist forces, belonging to the new government, responded with massacres in villages in the Latakia coastal area, home to most of the Alawites, the 2 million-strong minority Assad belonged to. They were carrying al-Qaeda flags, “stormed three villages” and killed dozens, SOHR reported. While al-Sharaa publicly called for more restrained actions, other islamist forces took the opportunity to indiscriminately attack Alawites. Despite belonging to the same minority as Assad, Alawites were of course overwhelmingly not part of his regime under the dictatorship and are wholly innocent of its crimes.
The government immediately sent more forces to the area, and a few days later declared “the military operation” was over. The government now has to balance between preventing further actions from armed pro-Assad forces that refuse to hand over weapons and accept the new regime on one side, and on the other the different islamist forces that control the south of the country and other areas.
Other groups understand they are less capable than HTS, but do not accept dissolving themselves. “At a recent meeting of anti-Assad militias in Damascus, al-Sharaa proposed they all share power in a military council. Of course, he would lead it and HTS would dominate. The others baulked.” (The Economist)
Imperialist powers
The Israeli state’s genocidal war on Gaza and its aggression throughout the region have changed the balance of power in the Middle East. This was further underlined by the regime change in Syria, which broke the Iranian regime’s “axis of resistance.” Just before the fall of Assad, Hezbollah, a key force on Assad’s side in Syria, was severely weakened by the massive Israeli bombings and ground invasion in Lebanon and assassinations of top leaders.
In the new Syria, Turkey has a key role as mentor of HTS, but even more influence through the so-called Syrian National Army, a force of up to 60,000 that is controlled by Ankara. Erdogan’s objective is twofold, to crush the Kurdish Rojava region in north-east Syria and to promote Turkish companies for business in Syria. In addition, Turkey’s standing in the region and globally is strengthened.
Netanyahu’s government in Israel has also used the opportunity after Assad’s fall to move forward. Troops were mobilised to the Golan Heights, Syrian territory occupied by Israel since 1967 and then moved into the supposedly demilitarised zone between the two states. Israeli troops have taken control of villages only 25 kilometers from Damascus. Netanyahu cynically claims one reason is to defend the Druze minority, even offering some of them jobs in Israel. Druze leaders, however, are not supporting this new occupation, underlining they have not asked for it.
The new HTS government has long tried to avoid any criticism of Israel, well aware of its military strength. This has not been a hindrance for the Israeli government to label the HTS regime as a “terrorist regime of radical Islam,” thereby justifying its military buildup towards Syria. As in Lebanon, Israel’s army is building fortifications in de facto new occupied areas. Recently, al-Sharaa have therefore been forced to make comments against the Israeli intrusion.
The actions of the Israeli state have a strong bearing on the view of the Trump administration, which has stated that US imperialism will support whatever action Netanyahu takes. Following the massacres and attacks on Alawites, Secretary of state Marco Rubio stated the administration “condemns the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in western Syria.” This can also influence whether or not the US will lift the sanctions or indeed pull out its troops in the northeast.
The Kurdish deal
On Monday 10 March, an agreement between the new regime and the Kurdish leadership was suddenly announced and signed by al-Sharaa and the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi. The general outline was for SDF as well as the civil institutions in Rojava to be integrated into the new Syrian state apparatus and army, also including the oil and gas fields in the region.
The deal is supposed to be implemented “before the end of the year”. A number of unsolved issues that up to now have been debated between Damascus and Rojava remain. The Kurdish leaders have demanded that its forces would be separate units of the army. Nothing is said about what force should be in charge of the al-Hol camp with its 50,000 ISIS prisoners that today is in the hands of the SDF. The attacks on Kurdish areas from Turkey and its Syrian National Army continued even on the day of signing of the deal.
Why are the Kurdish leaders signing a deal with the new islamist government? One reason is the call from PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for PKK to end the armed struggle in Turkey. The leading Kurdish force in Rojava, PYD, is closely linked to PKK and will most likely follow the same path. The move to make a deal is also probably based on signals from Washington. The US has relied on Kurdish forces for fighting ISIS, and played a role in holding back a full scale military attack from Turkey. If Trump turns closer to Erdogan, the Kurdish leaders will search for allies in Damascus. Even the Israeli regime’s claims that it defends minorities in Syria have won praise from Kurdish leaders.
The deal was celebrated on the streets in the Kurdish areas, but the applause is unfortunately unfounded. The only concrete positive step in the deal is that the Kurdish language will be allowed in general and in education. The dissolution of the SDF, with its 65,000 troops, has long been a demand put forward by Ankara. However, integration into the semi-failed state of HTS-led Syria gives no guarantee against Turkish attacks and offers no way forward for the life of the people in the region. And the profits from the oil fields will be controlled by Damascus.
It is most likely that the integration deal’s most difficult points will lead to a new crisis and a new break up. To put trust in governments such as the one in Damascus — or Jerusalem — has historically led the Kurdish national struggle to very brutal defeats. Previous attempts to do a deal with Erdogan have all ended in new military attacks by the Turkish army and increased repression against all political forces seen as pro-Kurdish. The leader of HDP (left party) in Turkey, Selahattin Demirtaş, who got 9.7 % in the presidential elections in 2014, has been in prison since 2016.
Workers and poor in Kurdistan and in Syria as a whole have common interests and should fight together. Organised defence and arms should be under the control of democratic committees. There are no imperialist or governmental forces to be relied on. The islamist HTS and its allies offer no way forward.
The devastation of Syria is a result of imperialism in all shapes. Formerly regions of the Ottoman empire, Syria was a French colony from 1919–45. Hafez al-Assad came to power in 1971, establishing a dictatorship that kept close relations with the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of Stalinism, Assad supported US imperialism’s war against Iraq in 1991. After Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son, Bashar al-Assad, came to power and was mainly praised in the west as more liberal, promising privatisations. However, what followed was increased repression to stem the growing discontent. This led to closer links to Russia, who became the regime’s main ally to crush what started as a revolution in 2011 and then became a civil war between the regime and different islamist and Kurdish forces. The initial democratic or left-wing opposition groupings were crushed or forced into exile.
To establish change, workers, youth and all oppressed people need democratic organisations, appealing for support from workers internationally. This is very hard in the present situation, marked by daily struggles for food. There is also fear of new armed conflicts and repression. Some limited steps to rebuild trade unions have been taken, and for example teachers have organised protests. There have also been some limited protests against the massacres last week. Common struggle across ethnic and religious borders, defending minorities and democratic rights, is the way forward.
The struggle in Syria is clearly linked to the struggle of the masses in the region — against war, dictatorship, occupation and siege. These crimes are backed by all imperialist forces. Both Washington and Beijing are supporting dictators and warmongers.
The Middle East has seen many revolts and explosions of struggle in the last 15 years, often with youth and women in leading roles, followed by brutal counter-revolution. The task for workers and socialists is to draw lessons. The working class can only rely on its own strength, must organise and be armed with a socialist internationalist program.
International Socialist Alternative says:
- Mass struggle for democratic rights for workers, women, Kurds and all the oppressed.
- Democratic defence committees across religious and ethnic lines. Democratic control over arms and armed groups.
- Hold those responsible in the state, police and military to account.
- Opposition to all imperialist intervention. Stop the bombings, withdraw all foreign troops.
- Stop all military attacks on Rojava.
- Bring natural resources and the key sectors of the economy under public ownership and democratic control.
- Reconstruction with housing and work for all. Raise minimum wages in line with the real cost of living.
- Build a revolutionary socialist party to fight for international socialism.
- For a socialist Syria, with the full right of self-determination for all peoples, in a socialist federation of the region.
