Paul Smith is a member of Alternatywa Socjalistyczna (ISA in Poland).
A mass mobilisation of women and youth in Poland’s recent parliamentary elections has defeated the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party. After 8 years of nationalist poison, corruption, cronyism, the erosion of democracy, the fusion of state and party, the plundering of state institutions and state-owned companies, and attacks on reproductive rights and the LGBT community, PiS has lost its parliamentary majority.
A coalition of “democratic opposition” parties formed by Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO), the centre-right Third Way, and the New Left (which the new left formation Razem is part of) won a majority of seats on 15 October and is now likely to form a new government in the coming weeks.
PiS is still the largest party in parliament and is claiming victory, with 35.4% of the vote, while PO won 30.7%, Third Way — 14.5%, New Left (Lewica) — 8.6%, and Konfederacja (a far-right coalition of nationalist and ultra-libertarian forces) — 7.2%. This gives PO, Third Way, and New Left a majority of 18 seats and leaves PiS with a very difficult path to forming a third-term government.
Huge mobilisation of voters
While the victory over PiS is presented in the media as the work of Donald Tusk, former President of the European Council and former Polish prime minister, it was actually thanks to the mass mobilisation of women and youth, who were determined to kick out PiS, hoping for the liberalisation of abortion rights and a return to “normality” and “freedom.” This development has its roots in the years of struggle and mass movement of women, particularly in 2016 and 2020 against the further tightening of the already restrictive anti-abortion law. Tusk and his party played no role in those struggles, but the protests of the past changed the mood among a large part of society and enabled him to mobilise people on the streets against PiS this year, with the last anti-PiS march of over 1 million people in Warsaw two weeks before the elections.
Nevertheless, to present himself as an alternative to PiS, Tusk was forced to pay lip-service to the demand for a liberalisation of the abortion law, promising to allow abortion up to 12 weeks. He was also forced to distance himself from his neoliberal past. He promised teachers a 30% wage rise and denied any plans to raise the retirement age or liquidate the new social benefits introduced by PiS. He also promised to hold PiS accountable and carry out a dePiSisation of state institutions. This reflects the overall mood in society, but in practice it may prove difficult if he is to operate within the confines of bourgeois law, due to the deep roots that PiS has sunk into the state institutions.
These elections were characterised by huge enthusiasm, hope and a carnival atmosphere at the polling stations. The turnout was 74%, higher than the previous record in 1989, when Poles voted in the first partially-free parliamentary elections which ushered in the collapse of Stalinism, and 10% higher than the previous elections. In Warsaw, the turnout was even higher, reaching 85% throughout the city and in some places 90%! Due to the record turnout, many polling stations ran out of ballot boxes and ballot papers, but thousands of people still queued throughout the night in the cold, determined to vote, hours after polling had officially closed elsewhere. Extra ballot papers and boxes had to be rushed in, and everyone who had been in the queue before 9pm finally managed to vote.
Besides the huge queues outside polling stations, one of the most striking images on election day was the sight of Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of PiS, attempting to vote. He entered the polling station surrounded by his government bodyguards, only to find a long queue of voters, silently staring at him with contempt and refusing to allow him to join the queue. He shuffled around, unsure where to go, looking like a lost, doddery old man, a sharp contrast to the image of a strong ruler and savvy politician that he tries to portray in the state-controlled media. After years of being surrounded only by party hacks in slick, well-orchestrated rallies, finally he had contact with real life and ordinary people, which clearly put him well out of his comfort zone. Finally, one young voter put him out of his misery, pointed towards the back and said casually, “the end of the queue is over there.”
Unfair elections
PiS lost despite the fact that these were not fair elections. This is also the opinion expressed in the preliminary report of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which pointed out that the opposition did not have a level playing field. The OSCE criticised the ruling party for using state resources and funds from state companies and institutions without any restrictions to conduct its election campaign. Above all, the OSCE criticised TVP, the public television station, for its “distorted and openly partisan coverage.” This is actually an understatement — in the hands of PiS, TVP became a crude party propaganda machine, shamelessly and cynically churning out lies, slander and whipping up fear, hatred and xenophobia.
One of the methods PiS used to funnel money out of state-owned companies such as the oil company Orlen was to organise a referendum on the same day as the parliamentary elections. There were 4 referendum questions aimed at mobilising the PiS electorate, mainly on xenophobic anti-immigrant issues. The intention was also to tie the hands of any new government on these issues. While the state-owned companies were unable to directly fund the ruling party’s election campaign, they could, however, fund the vicious anti-immigrant referendum campaign, which overlapped with the former.
However, in the weeks running up to the campaign, the rottenness of PiS was exposed when it was revealed that the deputy minister of foreign affairs (and possibly other ministers) had been at the centre of an illegal racket that had sold up to 100,000 visas to African and Asian citizens for several thousand euros each. The hypocrisy of PiS was even more pronounced because, at the same time, they were building a wall on the Polish-Belarusian border to keep out “illegal” immigrants. As a result of the Polish government’s illegal push-back policy there, dozens of immigrants have died on the border.
PiS lost credibility on this issue and their anti-immigrant campaign failed to have the desired effect. Most voters boycotted the referendum. As a result, the turnout was only 42% (compared to 74% for the parliamentary and senate elections), which means that the referendum is not binding.
PiS also used state institutions to organise family “picnics” and festivals to promote state policies during the campaign, literally giving out “election sausages” to potential voters. Money suddenly appeared from various special-purpose state funds and foundations to purchase equipment in traditional PiS constituencies to bolster support for the local candidates. It was estimated that tens of millions of euros of state money were channelled into PiS’s campaign in one way or another.
Origins of PiS rule
PiS came to power 8 years ago following the defeat of Donald Tusk’s previous coalition government with the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which is now part of Third Way. Tusk’s neoliberal government had presided over attacks on workers’ rights, a massive increase in precarious workers, and an increase in the retirement age. This sparked huge workers’ protests culminating in a 100,000-strong march organised by the three main trade union federations. Unfortunately, given the weakness of the left in Poland and the meltdown of the Democratic Left (now New Left) after their own neoliberal adventure in government even earlier, PiS were able to pose as a party that would represent the interests of workers and the poorer layers of society. Importantly, they promised to lower the retirement age back to the previous level and introduce a new child benefit, promises that they actually carried out and which later solidified their electorate.
Shifting the balance from comprador capitalism
However, PiS is not a workers’ party. In fact, it represents that part of the Polish bourgeoisie who support a strategy of shifting the balance of power more in favour of Polish capital and moving away from the model of comprador capitalism that developed in the post-Stalinist countries that later joined the EU. Although PiS leaders were part of the compromise with the Stalinist bureaucracy in 1988–1989 and participated in the first post-Stalinist governments in the early 1990s which carried out capitalist restoration, they now criticise the process that saw the “family silver” sold off to foreigners and failed — as they claim — to purge the “communists” from power and influence (ironically, many of them are now in the ranks of PiS). Instead, PiS want to see the creation of strong Polish capitalists as a guarantee of Polish independence.
To carry out their plan and shift the balance of power in Poland’s relationship with European capital, PiS has leaned on the working class by making concessions such as introducing new benefits and lowering the retirement age. PiS has also resorted to demagogy and xenophobia, demonizing immigrants and using anti-German propaganda in order to mobilize support for its nationalist agenda.
Although the Polish economy is still well integrated in the European economy, PiS has partly succeeded in achieving this shift. In 2003, 77% of the Polish banking sector was in foreign hands. After PiS’s “repolonisation” or “domestication” of the banks (consisting in capitalist nationalisation of foreign banks on a voluntary basis), that figure is now below 50%, while state-controlled banks make up 40% of the sector. A similar process with similar methods of rule, has taken place in Victor Orban’s Hungary. This is what right-wing populism, a form of bonapartist rule, really represents and strives for in Central and Eastern Europe.
Another aspect of this project, given the weakness of Polish capital, was to fuse the party and the state, and create state-party business empires, aimed at enriching PiS loyalists and ensuing PiS’s grip on power. This is most clearly seen in the case of rich state-owned companies such as KGHM and the state-owned oil company Orlen, as well as Orlen’s media company, Polska Press, which owns 20 regional newspapers. Orlen also supported the ruling party’s campaign by artificially lowering fuel prices in the weeks running up to the elections in order to manipulate the inflation figures. The result was panic buying at petrol stations and fuel shortages around the country, since people realised that after the elections fuel prices would go up again.
PiS also flouted the constitution on numerous occasions and “reformed” the judicial system, turning judges, public prosecutors and the courts into political instruments directly answerable to the far-right minister of justice, Zbigniew Ziobro. This put the PiS government on a collision course with the EU over undermining the so-called “rule of law” and resulted in blocked EU funds, among others, for the National Recovery Plan. It also provoked huge protests over the years in defence of the Constitution and “free courts.”
On the other hand, the “democratic opposition,” including the New Left, represents that part of the Polish bourgeoisie who see their future in a close alliance with European capitalism and in particular with the German economy. In the past, this has put them on a collision course with the Polish working class when they attempted to carry out neoliberal policies. This resulted in the Democratic Left (now New Left) going from 40% support in elections to failing to win the required 7% to get in parliament. Later, similar policies saw PO lose power to PiS.
Polish-Ukrainian tensions
Although the war in Ukraine is on Poland’s doorstep, and despite the prominent role that Poland has played in supporting Ukraine, the war did not have a major effect on the election results. This is because there are no major differences between any of the parties, including New Left and Razem, on the question of NATO and military support for the war. Poles are also largely in favour of supporting Ukraine’s war effort, since they fear the consequences of a Russian victory, which they believe would leave Poland vulnerable.
Nevertheless, the consequences of the war have caused tensions, which were aggravated in the context of the elections. Following the closure of the Black Sea route for Ukrainian grain exports due to the Russian naval blockade, Ukrainian grain was rerouted by land through Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. However, the cheap grain remained in the region and drove down the prices of local farmers, who organised protests in the spring.
Fearful of losing votes in the rural areas, which are bastions of PiS support, the Polish government introduced a ban on Ukrainian grain. This opened up yet another point of conflict between Poland and the EU, but also strained Polish-Ukrainian relations. PiS was also fearful of losing support among the more nationalist layers of its electorate to Konfederacja, which has campaigned against the “Ukrainisation of Poland” and tried to exploit the growing weariness in society with the Ukrainian refugee situation. As Polish-Ukrainian tensions escalated, Ukraine complained to the World Trade Organisation about Poland, Hungary and Slovakia banning its products. Konfederacja pointed out that Poland was not receiving sufficient gratitude from Ukraine for its support and for accommodating so many refugees. Under pressure from the far-right, the Polish government repeated this sentiment and announced that it would no longer be supplying Ukraine with weapons.
Donald Tusk called this decision a moral scandal and accused PiS of stabbing Ukraine in the back. However, the reality is that Poland is now focusing on modernizing its army, having already sent most of its old post-soviet equipment to Ukraine. The NATO hub in the city of Rzeszów, which is key for the transportation of weapons into Ukraine, remained unaffected by the row, and the only lasting effect was to remind the West that Poland under the rule of PiS is an unreliable partner.
Far-right
Another loser in these elections was Konfederacja, the coalition of far-right parties, who were previously expected to play the role of kingmakers in parliament and enable PiS to hold on to power. Over the summer, their support rose to as much as 15% in opinion polls. This was mainly among young people on the basis of their portrayal as the anti-system party of “freedom.” Their young, charismatic leader, Sławomir Mentzen, conducted a slick campaign on TikTok, promising a prosperous future thanks to ultra-libertarian policies such as privatisation and liquidation of taxes and social insurance. At the same time, they tried to hide their more controversial leaders and their more unacceptable views, such as jailing women who have illegal abortions and their support for paedophiles.
Many of those young people who supported Konfederacja over the summer were either unaware of the more sinister side of Konfederacja, or felt it was not as important as their economic policies and the promise of prosperity. However, over the last weeks this support melted as their potential voters realised that Konfederacja would most likely allow PiS to continue their rule.
What now?
After 8 years in government, PiS are not willing to give up power easily. They are now trying to prevent the opposition parties from forming a government by attempting to bribe opposition MPs to change sides, offering them and their families lucrative posts. However, it is unlikely that their dirty tricks will succeed as PiS would need to poach at least 18 MPs to eliminate the opposition’s parliamentary majority. Even then they would have an uphill battle to form a government as they would need to win the support of Konfederacja. But more importantly, if PiS succeeded, this would provoke a mass movement of the millions of voters who wanted real change.
The most likely scenario is that after weeks of delay, negotiations and machinations by PiS, the opposition parties — PO, Third Way, and New Left — will form a government some time in December. However, such a government will be unstable and unable to live up to the enormous enthusiasm, hope and high expectations invested in it.
The first stumbling blocks, potential cracks in the coalition (which doesn’t even exist yet), and future betrayals can already be seen. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamyk, one of the leaders of Third Way, which will now be the most neoliberal party in the coalition, indicated that they want to make social insurance contributions voluntary for entrepreneurs, end “handouts,” and liquidate the so-called 13th and 14th pension payment as well as the 13th salary in the public sector. If the new government were to follow this path, this would immediately provoke the anger of the working class and would be a serious test for New Left, which would have to decide which side it is on.
Kosiniak-Kamyk also stated that his party will not agree to including the intention to liberalise abortion in the coalition agreement. On the other hand, liberalisation of the law was one of the most important promises of both PO and New Left and was one of the biggest driving forces behind the victory of the opposition parties. Any backtracking on this issue will be unacceptable to the millions of women and young people who voted for them.
Before the elections, Alternatywa Socjalistyczna warned that the opposition cannot be relied upon to change the abortion law. To succeed in the fight for legal and safe abortion, it must be fought for here and now, on the streets and in the workplaces, not on the parliamentary benches. Instead of relying on the liberal leaders of the Strajk Kobiet movement, we call for the formation of action committees, based on democratically elected representatives, and propose demands that start from the immediate need for reproductive rights, but recognise that fundamental social change is also needed for these rights to be fully realised.
A new period has opened up now, with new possibilities and developments on the horizon. The coming months could see a return to protests demanding reproductive rights, but also workers protests, both in defence of past gains and demanding an improvement in living standards.
These elections clearly show that what is missing and badly needed is a genuine working-class party — a party created by the working class that would fight for and represent the working class. Such a party would also fight for democratic rights for women, LGBT+ people, ethnic and national minorities, and other oppressed and discriminated groups in society and unite them under its banner. Above all, instead of working within the confines of the capitalist system, such a party should fight for socialist change.
