At a time when the Canadian population is polarizing around the pandemic and looming economic crisis, Erin O’Toole has been selected as Andrew Scheer’s replacement atop a relatively energized and mobilized Conservative Party membership. While the number of Conservative party votes, members and donations are all up, the path to a Conservative parliament is less direct.
Most of the ground-breaking enthusiasm comes from social conservatives and the “Western Alienation” crowd, as can be seen by Leslyn Lewis, who leaned in hard on social conservative rhetoric throughout the campaign, winning all four Western provinces on the second round of the ballot. Peter MacKay, eventual runner-up to O’Toole, won the four Atlantic provinces, Ontario, and the territories on the second ballot. While O’Toole only won in Québec in the second round, he had an overall lead. In the final round almost all of Lewis votes went to O’Toole, who won a clear majority.
At a time when the party is being supported by an extreme fringe, O’Toole appears to be cut from the same milquetoast cloth as his predecessor, willing to entertain but not engage with the more radical elements energizing the party. A Conservative victory in an upcoming election would require at least one of Ontario and Québec, likely both, and this would require mobilizing hundreds of thousands of Canadians from outside their base. A mix of social conservative policies – such as anti-women’s choice and LGBTQ – and western alienation, is hardly a platform for victory.
Trudeau’s ever-scandalized Liberals, with their endless schemes, scams, and corruption, continue to give opportunities to the opposition. Having prorogued parliament until September 23, while awash in the WE scandal and Bill Morneau’s resignation, there have been rumblings that Trudeau might try to capitalize on the remaining popularity of the Liberal’s COVID response to win a majority in an autumn election.
Despite the fury at Trudeau’s malfeasance coming from both sides, this reset might be the perfect time to play for a majority. With new Finance Minister and media darling Chrystia Freeland holding down an ever-increasing role, alongside Trudeau, as the Liberal party spearhead, they may be able to balance a refreshed look with the remnants of popularity before the coming economic crisis. The CERB and other supports are the only thing keeping many Canadians afloat and employed, and when these subsidies end, Trudeau and Freeland will have a generational recession/depression on their hands. This ticking time bomb could spur a rash election, before O’Toole can cement his presence for the Conservatives.
In the media there has been little to no mention of the NDP or Greens, at a time when bold left policies, and socialism, are increasingly popular with Canadians, and especially with younger generations. The Green Party is also in the midst of a leadership race, which could decide the long-term fate of the party, from continuing on as the party of “conservatives who bike,” to a radical eco-socialism to the left of the NDP.
The NDP should be mobilizing at a time of unprecedented energy and upheaval, but they’re constantly pushed back by Liberal scandals and Conservative rhetoric. With the CERB and other COVID response programs, we aren’t even being plagued by the “How will we pay for it? How will we balance the books?” discussion that typically fends off any progressive policy. People have seen how the government can act and support them in their time of need, and this has inspired a population whose belief in government has been crushed by nearly half a century of neoliberal austerity.
It looks like the NDP is considering a deal with the Liberals, to keep them in office and win some modest concessions. The NDP should be capitalizing on the huge policy space that exists where the Conservatives can’t, and Liberals won’t, push popular reforms, to revive the country and economy in the face of the coming economic meltdown. Now is the time to push for a progressive, socialist future. Without strong pressure from the NDP or a far-left Green Party, Canada’s future will consist of Liberal corruption and a Conservative drift further right, into the crushing reality of climate change.
