The following statement was produced based on discussions on world perspectives at a meeting of ISA’s International Committee on 28 January.
In this epoch, the astonishing pace of world events has been commented upon so much that any reference to it appears clichéd. Nonetheless, it must be said that so far, 2026 has taken this feature of world perspectives, which is rooted in the manifold crises of capitalism, to a new level. So much so that the UK’s number one news podcast – BBC Newscast – felt compelled to publish its first “review of the year” no later than 26 January!
Donald Trump remains the driving force behind world relations, and the personification of the ugly and deeply reactionary turn being carried out by capitalism and imperialism globally. His parliamentary Bonapartist regime began 2026 on the offensive across all fronts. Following his successful decapitation and subjugation of the Venezuelan government, his hubris has been turbocharged. At the time of writing, Iran and Cuba are foremost in the list of “easy targets” and allies of Chinese imperialism which he is lining up to go after next.
2026 has also seen Trump step up assaults on the imperialist “allies” of the US. The crisis of the long-declining powers of Europe and the rest of the Western camp has gone from bad to worse. At Davos in January, the Western great and good of the system cowered in fear of what NATO chief Marc Rutte’s “daddy,” who had spent the previous few days threatening to invade Greenland, would announce next. And while he partly rowed back his threats against Denmark’s colony, he still delivered a speech full of humiliating take-downs of US imperialism’s NATO vassals. His rambling address was also soaked in racism and cheerleading for the destruction of the climate and ecology.
Canada’s Mark Carney talked tough in response to Trump’s aggression, and European governments are largely following suit. But as Trump put it when excoriating Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last year, they just don’t have the cards. It is crystal clear that no imperialist force (China included) or capitalist institution has the power – or the will – to decisively defeat Trump’s reactionary juggernaut. However, this year has also shone a spotlight on the one social force which possesses both – the working class.
Alongside his growing penchant for war and militarism abroad, in 2026 Trump has intensified his war on the oppressed people in the United States itself. But the grotesque reactionary offensive of ICE in Minnesota backfired and catapulted the US class struggle to a new level. The working class has now entered the stage of struggle with its own weapons. The historic political general strike in the Twin Cities followed two political general strikes against the Gaza genocide by the Italian working class last year. This must be the music of the future.
Epstein files expose a rotten ruling class
Amid a deep crisis of legitimacy of the capitalist establishment, the gradual release of the Epstein files is exposing the depravity of the ruling class and directly implicating a broad spectrum of establishment figures around the world. They flocked around one of the world’s most notorious pedophiles, sharing dinners, holidays and crucial information with him, as well as making business deals. The well-known names of Clinton, Gates, Musk, ex-Prince Andrew, Summers and of course Trump and so many more are all over the millions of documents released so far. Yet, the Trump-controlled Department of Justice has declared there is “no grounds for new prosecutions” – meaning no justice for the 1,000 or more young women and girls who are the victims of trafficking, rape and assaults. Meanwhile, millions more documents are not made public and those that are released are censored.
The Epstein files expose a rot in society. They have created another deep crisis for the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who appointed Epstein’s loyal friend Peter Mandelson as ambassador in Washington. It could be the final nail in the coffin for Starmer’s premiership. In Norway, the monarchy is rocked by the close relationship between crown princess Mette-Marit and Epstein. A former Norwegian Labour Party leader is also implicated. Trump – “the dog that did not bark,” in Epstein’s words – and many others desperately want this story to be over. His most loyal supporters might agree, but further revelations, demands for justice and increased anger against the elite will mean that this is far from the end.
With climate catastrophes escalating, ruling classes are turning away from previous targets and allegedly climate-friendly policies. In this field as well, the Trump administration leads the retreat by governments, companies and institutions, as part of global reaction. Climate measures are being replaced in the list of priorities by an arms race, underlining today’s parasitic stage of capitalism.
“We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature”, summarised the Global Tipping Points Report. The target from Paris a decade ago – of 1.5°C increase in global temperatures – has already been surpassed and the world is heading for 3 degrees by 2100. The climate crisis has led to an increase of climate refugees, as well as to struggles and protests. Water shortages, for instance, were an important factor in the mass movements in Madagascar and Iran in 2025.
Class struggle is decisive for Marxist perspectives, which are not just about commentary and analysis, but about how to arm the working class to win. Make no mistake: the working class can push Trump and international reaction back. To do so, however, will require decisive strides forward to address the historic crisis of organisation and leadership from which the labour movement continues to suffer. This is the core task to which ISA is dedicated.
Trump and US imperialism on the offensive, China’s weakness exposed
The kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his partner Celia Flores by US special forces on January 3, was an expression of growing US aggression, not just regionally but globally.
Trump and his regime, in their buildup to this attack, framed it as an attack on “narco terrorism” although there is no evidence that the Venezuelan regime had significant involvement in the drug trade. But as Trump subsequently made brutally clear, an important part of the real motivation was control of Venezuela’s oil, the largest proven reserves in the world. This is both about the US getting access to the oil, and depriving rivals, especially China but also Cuba, of access.
What was absent was any reference to international law or a wider ideological justification. Of course, in the long history of US imperialism in Latin America there have been any number of invasions or engineered coups that were just about naked imperialist resource-grabbing or overturning governments that dared to question the US and its “interests.” But this was less crude, being disguised as “multilateralism”, after World War II. The attack on Venezuela is more like the late 19th century “gunboat diplomacy” which characterised the division of the world among colonial empires.
Just like the threats against Greenland, this was also an expression of the abandonment of the “rules based order.” This term, widely used in the bourgeois media at the moment, refers to the structures, including the UN and NATO, set up by US imperialism after World War II as part of the establishment of its global hegemonic role.
But now, the US ruling class feels that the rules based order has itself become an unsustainable burden. We have seen the resurrection of “hemispherism”, of the Monroe Doctrine (now the “Donroe” Doctrine) from the early days of the American Republic based on the colonial idea that Latin America is the US’ “backyard”.
But US imperialism has no intention of limiting itself to its “own” hemisphere, as a cursory glance at Trump’s actions over the past year shows. This includes the bombing of Iran last June and of the Houthis in Yemen as well as his fulsome support for Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza – not to mention December’s airstrikes in Nigeria.
What really ties all these attacks together – besides simply the ruthless assertion of US interests – is the desire to push back against Chinese imperialism in the global inter-imperialist conflict. Like the US’s earlier promotion of the proxy war in Ukraine, attacking Iran was in no small part about sending a clear message to Iran’s ally, China, that the dominance of the Middle East by the US and Israel will not be challenged. What’s more, when Assad’s regime in Syria fell in late 2024, when the Israeli military severely degraded Hezbollah, and when B-52s extensively damaged the Iranian nuclear program, not just Iran but China and Russia were shown to be unable to do much of anything about it.
Venezuela has been China’s key client state in Latin America and also has close ties to Russia. Hours before the US attack on January 3, Maduro had hosted the Chinese envoy. But now as Maduro sits in a New York City jail cell, Delcy Rodriguez’s government has agreed to Trump’s demand that the country’s “hydrocarbon law” be changed to suit US interests. Again, China and Russia have been shown to be impotent to defend their own interests and help their allies/proxies.
In this sense, Trump’s actions have been more a demonstration of the weakness of its adversaries rather than of the inherent strength of US imperialism. The limitations of US imperialism today are also very clear. Despite the precision-timed attack in Caracas, a real invasion is politically impossible for Trump and would lead to massive opposition in US society. The “Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq syndrome” is fully in effect.
Trump’s preference for “cheap and easy” military intervention with no “boots on the ground” is extremely clear. He will look for other allegedly easy targets. Trump was dissuaded a few weeks ago by Israel and Arab allies from launching strikes against Khamenei’s regime in Iran even as it appeared to be hanging by a thread, because they feared the destabilising effect in the region. But it’s clear that he’s not taken the option off the table.
The Cuban state is at the weakest point in its entire history with an economy that has partially collapsed, millions having left the country and constant power outages. The US is now trying to throttle the regime by cutting off its supply of oil from Venezuela. Mexico has partly filled the gap but is also under US pressure. But a direct US attack could precipitate chaos on the island with no clear outcome.
In listing the motivations of Trump’s imperialist offensive in Latin America, we can add alongside the colonial-style seizure of resources and pushing back against Chinese imperialism, a firm desire to bury long-standing challenges to US imperialism in the region once and for all.
But the abandonment of the role of guarantor of the world capitalist system in favour of naked assertion of interests; the current inability of the US military to really occupy territory; as well as the looming implosion of the US economic model, all reflect the long-term decline of US imperialism. And, as with developments inside the US, the imperialist offensive will inevitably lead to overreach and provoke a massive response from the masses. It is a delusion to think that they can simply “rule” Venezuela or the region without resistance. This is true even though, at the moment, there is a significant (if superficial) degree of support in Latin America for Trump’s kidnapping of Maduro. This support is rooted in the drastic loss of authority of the Venezuelan regime and the perception that Trump is attacking the drug gangs.
The four-year war in Ukraine is another illustration of the limits of US power. It rages on, despite Trump’s promises and an unprecedented number of summits in 2025. In freezing temperatures, record numbers of Russian drones and missiles are now destroying energy sites and infrastructure in Ukraine. This has so far not had the effect on Ukrainian morale that Putin hoped for. In early February, Zelenskyy claimed that 55,000 Ukrainians have fallen in the war (which is likely an underestimation). Yet while opinion polls show a strong majority in favour of making concessions to achieve peace in the abstract, 74% remain opposed to giving up land.
With Russian troops still slowly advancing, Putin has played for time, pushing the demand for Ukraine to withdraw the entire Donbas region. That would mean Ukraine giving up 25% of Donetsk and some of its most fortified regions without a fight, something very hard for Kiev and its European sponsors to accept. Instead of peace, Trump has secured other more important achievements in his eyes: access to Ukrainian natural resources, forcing European states to pay for the war and US arms, and the possibility of future trade deals with Russia. The Ukraine war will continue to play a key role in world and especially European perspectives.
Greenland and the death of the Western alliance
Trump’s claim to ownership over Greenland was a definite breaking point after 80 years of “Transatlantic partnership.” The head of US imperialism demanded “ownership” of the largest island in the world and did not exclude conquering it by force. Objections from governments in Greenland, Denmark and Europe were ridiculed, and when a very symbolic military force was sent by 8 European states they were threatened with up to 25% tariffs.
The sharpest threats were pulled back on 21 January, with Trump claiming a “framework” had been agreed between himself and Nato’s Secretary General Mark Rutte. However, much remains unclear. “What do we know about the ‘framework’ deal at this point in time? At present, very little”, the Danish think tank Europa summarised. Under a 1951 agreement, updated in 2004, the US already has the right to military bases on Greenland. During this crisis, US companies have repeatedly been invited to exploit its vast natural resources which, however, for the most part are extremely difficult (unprofitable) to exploit.
European politicians drew a sigh of relief when Trump seemed to put the military option to one side. This was a decision based on massive opposition, both in Greenland, Europe and in the US. But it also reflected renewed turmoil in financial and stock markets due to the risk of drastic economic consequences from new tariffs and possible European retaliation. Again, another factor was Trump’s unwillingness to use US ground forces and the costs of such an adventure. He then immediately turned his attention to Iran and Cuba.
However, the issue of Greenland is not over. The imperialist conflict over the Arctic, around military strategy, natural resources and transport routes, will only increase with ongoing climate collapse. US imperialism will not be satisfied with the status quo. But hints that a deal might be made with direct US ownership of military bases on the island – with similarities to the situation in Panama, Diego Garcia and Guantanamo Bay, as well as British bases in Cyprus – are meeting strong resistance from both Greenland and Denmark.
The neo-colonialism of US imperialism has been expressed most clearly by the Trumpist ideologue Stephen Miller: “To control a territory, you have to be able to defend a territory, improve a territory, inhabit a territory.” “Denmark has failed at every single one of these tests” and “nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland.”
ISA stands for a socialist answer: The future of Greenland should be decided by Greenlanders. The island should be demilitarised. Its natural resources and main industries – fishing, tourism, and any future mining – should be under the public ownership of Greenland. The working class in Denmark, Nordic countries and the US should be mobilised against imperialism, acts of war and exploitation.
Governments in Europe have spent the first year of Trump 2.0 flattering him and adapting to the zig-zags and attacks from the White House. One main factor behind this is their dependence on US arms for Ukraine, although European powers now have to pay for them. With Greenland and continued support by Trump for far-right opposition to the European establishment parties, it has dawned on Berlin, Paris and London that the Godfather is deserting them. They are too weak to really challenge the US, but have to de-risk and become more independent. This will further increase the military build-up, and can cause new splits in the EU. Meanwhile, both London and Ottawa are coming closer to the EU. At the World Economic Forum, Canada premier Carney’s speech was an attempt to outline steps to decrease dependence on the US.
“Carneyism”, as it has been called, is an attempt to avoid being mere vassals to the king. They will avoid a formal break with the US at this stage, and their steps are largely symbolic. Carney visited Beijing, circulated his Davos speech to European leaders in advance and Canada has even made plans for a hypothetical US military invasion. So has the Danish military, pointing to the US as a threat to its security. However, the European and Canadian governments of course are fundamentally no different, standing only for other variants of nationalism, militarism and imperialism. This is most clearly shown in the EU’s brutal policies against migrants and refugees.
Who is really lining up with Trump was further made clear with the announcement of the Board of Peace, also launched at WEF. Originally agreed as part of the Gaza “ceasefire deal”, the Board has been expanded to cover all kinds of conflicts, as a Trump-controlled rival to the UN. The Board includes all Trump favourites: Netanyahu, Milei, Gulf state dictators and so on, with Viktor Orbán as the only PM from an EU country. The Executive of seven has only two non-US members, Tony Blair and Ayay Banga, president of the World Bank. Trump is the Board’s chairman for life.
2026 has sped up the break-up of the imperialist Western alliance and its way of working over the last 80 years. This process will continue, with huge consequences for the world economy, NATO and politics, not least in Europe.
Deeply unstable world economy
The world economy continues to be deeply unstable with massive levels of indebtedness, including in the advanced capitalist countries; a speculative bubble in the US that looks ready to burst; and an intractable deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy. Both of the latter are the result of vast overaccumulation of capital in the last period.
Without the astronomical investment by key tech firms in the AI arms race – particularly in the building of ever more data centers – the US economy would already be in recession. This shows no signs of slowing down with capital expenditure by the top four firms – Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta – set to reach $660 billion in 2026. But there are increasing questions of whether most of these investments will lead to actual profitable returns, at least in the short term.
There are also increasing reports of AI products not generally leading to the promised productivity gains for companies. While some applications are useful and labour-saving, many others lead to so many errors that they simply create more work to fix.
There has been increasing volatility in the stock markets for tech, crypto and “metal” stocks (gold and silver) which have seen wild swings as investors search for a hedge against the coming fallout if (or rather when) the bubble bursts.
Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of economic and political blackmail is set to continue. At the same time, the effect so far of the trade war on the world economy has not been as severe as seemed possible after “Liberation Day” last April. This is because of the large number of exemptions for particular categories of goods and because other countries chose not to retaliate, seeing little choice. What is clear though is that there is an increasing search for other arrangements to “de-risk” from Trump’s US. This includes the EU trying at long last to complete a trade deal with Mercosur in Latin America and both Canada and the UK making limited deals with China.
Meanwhile, Oxfam reported that billionaire wealth jumped in 2025 to its highest peak ever. Inequality continues to worsen as does absolute poverty with the World Bank estimating that 839 million people live on less than $3 per day.
The US meanwhile, even before the bubble bursts, is a two-speed economy. On the one side there is a very affluent upper middle class and an incredibly wealthy elite driving consumption. On the other is the majority who are increasingly fearful of layoffs and face an acute “affordability” crisis with housing and healthcare costs weighing on households but also continuing inflation on everyday goods. The number of layoffs in January was the highest for the first month of the year since 2009 in the middle of the Great Recession.
In the past two decades, the world has had the two biggest global downturns since the Great Depression. The next global downturn, likely soon, is implicit in the situation. And there will be no meaningful international coordination by the bourgeoisie to address this. The monetary and fiscal measures used in 2008-9 and 2020 to get the world economy out of the ditch will also likely not work this time. The next downturn becoming a prolonged slump is therefore not just possible but likely. This will be the next major shift in the world situation with huge implications, including at a certain stage, a massive explosion of social and class struggle.
Iran uprising and wars for power in the Middle East
In the Middle East, Netanyahu and Trump want to complete the change in balance of power in the region which has been taking place in the past few years. This means continued turmoil. As of early February, Trump’s armada is building up for a possible attack on Iran, following massacres that put a halt to one of the strongest mass revolts ever against the Islamist capitalist dictatorship. The “ceasefire” in Gaza has meant no real relief from hellish conditions. In Syria, a military offensive from the al-Sharaa regime could mean the end of Kurdish autonomy in Rojava.
The mass uprising in Iran from 28 December-10 January gave hope of an end to the dictatorship. Five million or more were reportedly part of mass demonstrations, confrontations with security forces and strikes. This movement clearly shook the regime, whose forces met peaceful street protests with live ammunition. There are reports of 30,000 dead, with the internet still closed down weeks later. The regime was already severely weakened after the war in June and the loss and weakening of its closest allies in the region.
“Help is on its way,” Trump announced during the mass protests. After contact with the Iranian regime, he backed off for the moment, stating the killings had ended and were fewer than reported. This was based on a fear in the region, from Israel and Gulf states, of military retaliation from Iran, but above all of the rebellion itself and its consequences. Trump prefers “stability” to struggles and chaos. The military build up and threats that followed aim to establish a submissive regime in Iran, similar to the Venezuelan situation. This would also constitute a major blow against Chinese imperialism and its Russian ally.
There is still a high risk of a US military attack. Even if there is a deal with the US, the situation in Iran will be far from stable. All the deep crises – extreme inflation, severe water shortages, unemployment, lack of democratic rights, and oppression of workers, women, youth and oppressed nationalities – are still there. US imperialism and Israel are acting for their own power and profits. The only way out is a conscious struggle of the working class and all the oppressed to overthrow the regime, with a clear anticapitalist and antiimperialist program, appealing to workers in the region. The building of socialist working-class organisations is key.
The Trump “ceasefire” in Gaza was launched on 10 October. In the four months since, a further 500 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military, which still controls over half of the strip. The extreme right-wing government of Israel has no plans to withdraw. Delivery of medicines, food and necessities have been blocked. The so-called “technocratic” provisional government has not yet been allowed into Gaza. Hamas has not disarmed and no state has committed troops for the “International Stabilisation Force.” The humanitarian catastrophe continues, with children dying of cold and diseases. There is no “reconstruction” in sight and the plans for mass deportations of Palestinians still exist among Israeli politicians.
Netanyahu’s government is using its military force all over the Middle East, with worsening violent ethnic cleansing on the West Bank alongside almost daily attacks on claimed Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. Elections in Israel are coming up in November, but the “opposition parties” offer no real alternative, having supported the genocide in Gaza and regional military actions. Despite both Hezbollah and Hamas being defeated for now, as with the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, new organised resistance will develop. For the Palestinian struggle, as well as to overthrow the reactionary Israeli ruling class, organised struggle of the working class in the region is needed. New steps in that direction can build upon the protest movement and strikes among Palestinians in Israel that started this year.
The al-Sharaa regime in Syria, which took power with the collapse of Assad in December 2024, has the full backing of Turkey and the US for its military actions against Kurdish autonomy in Rojava (West Kurdistan, North-East Syria). Again, Washington wants “stability” and Ankara hopes to defeat the Kurds, but it is still unclear what it can achieve. Al-Sharaa is completely dependent on regional and global allies, including Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, but is incapable of solving the extreme economic devastation and crisis. In the south, Israel has occupied Syrian territory and supported regional forces without Damascus being able to react. Rojava’s Kurdish rule is in danger, but the Syrian regime is far from stable.
Battle ground Latin America
Trump’s aggression has also catapulted Latin America towards the centre of world relations. Its status as a key battleground in the US/China conflict is not new. China’s rapid rise in the continent over the course of the last two decades was one of the sharpest expressions of its threat to US hegemony. And now with Beijing’s economy flailing, Trump is leading a major counter-offensive.
From day one of his second Presidency, Trump signalled that US imperialism was returning to an aggressive posture in the region. This started immediately with a campaign aimed at Chinese influence surrounding the Panama Canal and threats of all-out economic warfare against Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. The use of direct military aggression against Venezuela was a logical next step.
This administration is “saying the quiet part out loud” like no other in US history, in relation to how Uncle Sam sees Latin America. Pete Hegseth spoke plainly: China must be kept out of “our own backyard”. For the Latin American left and the labour and social movements on the continent, this means that US imperialism’s reactionary role is back in the spotlight. Fighting Trump’s aggression will become a major domestic political issue everywhere south of the US border.
This means that promoting debate about what an effective anti-imperialist strategy and policy looks like today is a key task for socialists. This is especially important given the shockwaves which have been sent through the left-wing movement by the Venezuelan government’s abject capitulation to Washington. Within days of Maduro’s capture, Delcy Rodriguez’s continuity administration had handed over millions of barrels of oil to Trump, and even carried out a “joint operation” with the US to seize a sanctioned tanker.
Incredibly, some on the left attempt to square the circle and bury their heads in the sand, reassuring us that this is still an “anti-imperialist” administration, and that Delcy’s capitulations are merely skillful 3D chess moves. But Marxists understand that this is in fact a continuation of the Maduro regime’s policy – a regime which has presided over the degeneration of the Venezuelan revolutionary movement. Ultimately, it is rooted in the failure of the Chavista movement, despite historic pro-working-class reforms driven forward by revolutionary struggle, to challenge the fundamentals of capitalist rule and convert rhetoric about socialist revolution into action.
The situation in Latin America is a tragic negative confirmation of Trotsky’s theory of permanent revolution. Revolutionary movements which remain isolated, as in Cuba, or do not expropriate the ruling class, as in the case of Venezuela, will be forced to succumb to the pressure of imperialist counter-revolution.
Across Latin America, the limitations of reformism have been behind the ebbing of successive waves of mass struggle and the defeats suffered by left-wing governments in Bolivia, Peru, Chile, and elsewhere. Only revolutionary reorganisation of the left, based on the learning lessons from past defeats, can pave the way for new victories. A consistent anti-imperialist policy must be socialist, and also crucially avoid the pit-fall of illusions in Chinese imperialism as a somehow progressive alternative to Uncle Sam.
On 29 January, Trump issued a diktat officially labelling the Cuban government a threat to US security and threatened secondary sanctions against any country which continues to supply Havana with oil. This is both a continuation of his aggression against Venezuela – which was partly motivated by a desire to further weaken the Cuban economy – and a threat to Mexico, which has partially replaced Venezuelan oil supplies to the beleaguered island. The complete stranglehold of energy supplies has led to an untenable situation in Havana, which was already plagued by blackouts and shortages.
For Trump and Marco Rubio, the toppling of the Havana regime would of course be an historic revenge. However, regime change in Cuba would be an even more complex task than in Venezuela. While the Miami-based exiled bourgeoisie and its backers are enthusiastically cheering Trump on, the prospect of Trump returning them to power on the island is extremely remote, given their lack of social base and the political impossibility of a US-led invasion and occupation. Moreover, the legacy of the Cuban revolution remains an important factor in the consciousness of millions of millions of working-class people on all continents, which could lead to a larger response on the streets than that which Trump’s attacks on Venezuela met with.
Trump’s interventionism in the continent is also political, and will be a factor in several crucial elections taking place this year. In 2025, Trump spent billions of US treasury funds to help Javier Milei buy the midterm elections in October, then made a similar intervention in support of Nasry Asfura in Presidential elections in Honduras, promising large-scale US aid in the event of his victory.
This year, polls indicate that Colombia’s elections are likely to go Trump’s way, with right-wing candidate De La Espriella in the lead, but there is every possibility that his aggression could also backfire. In Brazil, which will also hold Presidential elections in October, Trump’s intervention – including the imposition of punitive tariffs – in support of jailed former President and coup-plotter Jair Bolsonaro, have had far from the desired effect. Despite his advanced age and the betrayal of hopes that his return to government would improve the lives of the masses, Lula leads the polls while the right wing struggles to cohere around a successor candidate to Bolsonaro. Our Brazilian section, LSR, stands out in opposition to the process of dissolution of PSOL (Party of Socialism and Liberty) into the governmental camp and is waging a determined struggle to promote a new cycle of reorganisation of the left, labour movement and social movement based on class independence and a socialist programme.
Scramble for Africa, Gen Z revolts and military coups
Africa is hit harder by the new global era of the 2020s than any other continent – suffering imperialist-led austerity and a scramble for natural resources; climate catastrophe and repression against democratic rights. This has led to several military coups as well as youthful revolts from below. Discontent with authoritarian governments, corruption and election fraud is widespread.
2025 saw “Gen Z” revolts in Kenya, Morocco, Tanzania and Madagascar. Young people were protesting against IMF austerity leading to unemployment and high inflation, shortage of water and electricity while the ruling elite’s consumption continued to increase. However, lack of democratic working-class organisation and a clear program opened the way for repression and derailed struggles into negotiations with state representatives, blocking the way to real change. In Madagascar, president Andry Rajoelina fled the country and the lack of a working-class alternative opened the door for the military to take power.
Major discontent with governments, armed Islamist forces and French imperialism led to military coups in Sahel – Mali in 2020, Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. The new regimes initially had support, using anti-imperialist rhetoric and carrying out some nationalisations. However, they aligned with competing imperialist powers, mainly Russia, failed to stop the Islamists and intervened with repression against strikes and protests. Despite these military nationalist regimes offering no way forward, new coups took place in 2025, in Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar. A coup was also attempted in Benin and in Nigeria officers are on trial accused of coup plans.
In recent elections in Cameroon and Uganda, decades-long presidents Biya and Museweni were declared winners, with opposition parties banned and its leaders arrested. In both countries, the military already plays a dominant role.
Movement for a Socialist Alternative (ISA in Nigeria) was part of major protests in August 2024, where the effect was close to that of a general strike. The need for a workers’ alternative to the Tinubu regime and capitalism is urgent in a country with extreme price rises, increasing violence and state repression. MSA is involved in discussions on how to build strike and protest movements as well as how to deal with the upcoming elections in 2027. MSA stresses the urgency to build revolutionary socialist forces around the continent.
Africa is also a key intersection of the interimperialist conflict over natural resources, markets and power. Chinese imperialism has long since been the continent’s major trading partner, increasing its trade surplus with Africa by 64.5% last year. US imperialism has a stronger military presence and is now more aggressively intervening to secure profits and power. Under Trump 2.0, Washington has dropped previously alleged priorities on aid and democracy. Trade and minerals are what counts, and US imperialism is eager to get hold of resources in war-torn Congo and Sudan.
For 2026, developments in Nigeria will be highly important, with the ruling class preparing for elections in 2027 and the working masses looking both for a political alternative and a way to struggle. If the unions would call well-prepared days of action, for example against the tax reforms and economic policies that directly shortchange the working masses and worsen the cost-of-living crisis in the country, the response would be strong and lay the basis for building a working-class alternative. New developments in South Africa, with its strong tradition of workers struggles, can also set an example, uniting workers, young people and all oppressed against capitalism and imperialism.
The battle of Minneapolis and class war in the US
The general strike in Minneapolis on January 23 represents a turning point in the struggle against Trump’s profoundly reactionary regime. The working class has now begun to exert its social power. As we have insisted, this is the only force that can push back Trump’s counterrevolutionary, authoritarian agenda. But to inflict a more decisive defeat on his administration, every time Trump orders the invasion of a city by ICE he must be met with a similar mobilisation. This points to the need for nationwide strike action as a next step to escalate the struggle and deal a more serious blow to the Trump regime.
A section of the national labour leadership, responding to significant pressure from rank and file workers, has now indicated broad support for the idea of strike action on May Day. This reflects the massive shift in public opinion caused by the brutal authoritarian rampage by 3,000 federal agents in Minneapolis with 3,000 people arrested and abducted, including large numbers of citizens and legal residents who have been detained because of the color of their skin, as well as protesters.
The repression – especially the public assassination of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, who were engaged in peaceful neighborhood resistance – served to galvanize mass fury. A plurality in the US in early February supports abolishing ICE. A large part of society now believes that ICE, with its $85 billion budget, is Trump’s private army and that its agenda is not just terrorising immigrants but crushing political opposition generally.
The general strike in Minneapolis grew out of the resistance of ordinary people in Minneapolis/St Paul neighborhoods. But it was also sparked by the abduction of members of the heavily immigrant Service Employees International Union (SEIU) union who in turn galvanized a wider section of the labor movement. Eight hundred businesses were shut, many retail and warehouse workers took action, schools were closed and there was a mass protest at the airport. Some on the left claimed that it wasn’t a “real” general strike because important sections of the economy remained open.
It is true that important industries remained open and key unions especially those representing the “heavy battalions” of the working class took a legalistic approach and did not organise their memberships to participate. Because of this, the strike was not built to its full potential. However, our comrades correctly explained that the key thing is that real political work stoppages called by the unions took place. This was absolutely electrifying to hundreds of thousands nationwide. The bosses in Minneapolis understood the significance of these events better than some on the far left. Fearing the implications, sixty Minneapolis based employers signed a statement after 23 January calling for deescalation. This points to how further escalation by the working class can force splits in the ruling class and thereby undermine Trump’s position further. The following Friday, 30 January, saw hundreds of thousands of high school and college students nationally staging walkouts. There were sickouts by teachers in some cities. Despite the lack of involvement by the labour movement in actions on 30 January, this showed that the mood to fight was spreading rapidly.
In the face of mass opposition, Trump has been forced to walk back on his invasion of the Twin Cities – initially ordering a partial withdrawal of forces, before ultimately announcing an end to “Operation Metro Surge.” This is a significant victory and shows that further escalation by the labour movement can win a decisive victory against Trump on the national level.
The Democratic Party and their allies in the labour leadership will do their utmost to turn the movement back towards electoral channels, pointing to the November midterm Congressional elections as the way to beat Trump. Trump’s poll numbers do indeed point to Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives. But this is not how this authoritarian regime will be defeated. Trump is now also making threats to not accept the outcome if it’s not “fair.” While the election is still nine months away and there could be many twists and turns, we must be very clear that the Trumpists will go to great lengths to hold onto power. It must not be forgotten that the 6 January 6 2021 coup attempt, while shambolic, had serious intent.
A nation-wide political strike in the US would be an historic development. Unsurprisingly most of the labour leadership is either staying on the sidelines or pushing hard against this. But what is clear is, that having seen the first real step by the working class, millions will respond to a clear call for national action which undoubtedly will include some level of strike activity. The genie is out of the bottle.
To fully understand what a defeat for the Trump regime would represent it is worth comparing this to other counterrevolutionary regimes in US history. At the end of World War I, in the wake of the Russian Revolution, Woodrow Wilson sought to smash the militant wing of the labour movement and to go after the Black and immigrant populations that they correctly feared would be most affected by the example of the Russian workers. At the start of the era of neoliberal globalisation, Ronald Reagan sought to deliver a decisive blow to the labour movement as he ramped up attacks on the gains made by Black people, women and queer people in the 1960s and 70s and claw back concessions made to the working class as a whole in the post-World War II period.
If Trump loses this fight it would be equivalent to Reagan losing to the labour movement when he fired the entire membership of PATCO in 1981 or even to Margaret Thatcher losing to the British miners in the mid 80s. It would represent a profound loss of control for the ruling class, a blow to US imperialism and a massive opening for the workers movement and the left (and not just in the US). Trump as we have pointed out is the embodiment of the reactionary turn of the bourgeoisie internationally. Given what’s at stake, defeating him will almost certainly take a period of intensified struggle by the working class. But Minneapolis was the beginning.
This also comes as the further revelations about sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein and his massive social network of CEOs, presidents and royals has completely undermined what was left of the authority of the “global elite.” The degeneracy and decay of the bourgeoisie is on full display for the whole world to see. This points to how the counterrevolutionary drive at the start of this era can be turned into the beginning of a revolutionary challenge to capitalism if the working class shows the way forward.
China’s deep internal crisis
Major developments in early 2026 have confirmed ISA’s analysis of a deep internal crisis in China as the gap widens especially in military and geopolitical terms with its principal imperialist rival, Trump’s US. The crushing electoral victory of Sanae Takaichi in Japan on 8 February, with her LDP winning the most Lower House seats in its history, further ramps up the pressure on Beijing. While Japan’s economic “recovery” is built on the flimsiest of foundations, Takaichi signifies an upsurge of an aggressive nationalist and pro-militarist right, who seek to make Japan “a normal country.” This can later create huge problems also for US imperialism as its Japanese “proxy” seeks to flex its own muscles and play a more autonomous role.
On 23 January, China’s highest ranked military officer, general Zhang Youxia, was arrested alongside Liu Zhenli, former army commander and chief of staff. Zhang was accused of “seriously trampling upon and undermining” the leadership system – a euphemism for disobeying and challenging Xi Jinping, the chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), which is the senior controlling organ over the army. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, but denied by China’s Ministry of Defence, Zhang is even accused of passing secrets on China’s nuclear weapons to the US.
The arrests follow upon a huge series of purges in the PLA, with around 130 generals investigated or disappearing since 2022, a number of them allies of Xi Jinping. The CMC appointed in 2022 to steer the world’s largest army now only has two out of seven members left, Xi Jinping and general Zhang Shengmin. This indicates that the recent arrests were Xi’s counter-move in a power struggle at the top of the CCP dictatorship. Most foreign commentators have repeatedly misunderstood this internal conflict, attributing the removal of Zhang and Liu to “corruption,” or to disagreements over Taiwan strategy. While the latter may well be a factor, what’s decisive is the struggle for power and control: Zhang had shifted into opposition to Xi Jinping and initiated the removal of Xi’s key supporters in the army over the past year and a half.
While most media and left-wing analysts have continued to speak of “the rise of China,” ISA has discussed the power struggle taking place as a result of the deep economic and social crisis in the country. In our world perspectives statement in October, we wrote: “There is an ongoing power struggle at the top of the ruling ‘CCP,’ although the ‘black box’ of the dictatorial regime hides the scale of it. Almost certainly, this power struggle in which Xi Jinping is increasingly challenged, is a trigger for the re-escalation of the trade conflict with Trump.” The latter was confirmed when Xi Jinping in the deal made with Trump in South Korea, accepted 47% US tariffs as opposed to only 10% for US exports to China, as well as backing off from threats to block exports of rare earth minerals and making no mention at all of Taiwan.
The economic crisis in China resembles “Japanification,” named after Japan’s decade-long period of deflation, low growth and building up of huge debts. A difference is that China’s role in the world economy now is much larger than Japan’s was in the 1990s. Another is that China does not have any kind of social safety net as existed in Japan. The effects of overcapacity and a high number of zombie companies that cannot repay old debts have immediate social consequences with rising unemployment and cuts in wages. The collapse of the property sector, once accounting for a third of GDP, has been ongoing for five years and continues. The crisis cuts consumption and strengthens the deflationary process.
In this totalitarian dictatorship, unrest and hatred is growing below the surface. Last year, the number of newborn children in China was 7.9 million, a drop of 20% in two years – and the lowest number in 300 years! The demographic crisis is an open wound, with the appearance of the slogan “we are the last generation,” There is also a new upturn in strikes and protests, 48% more in 2025, linked to unpaid wages and workplace closures.
This is the basis for the power struggle at the top. Factions and groupings within the CCP capitalist elite are fighting over what is the best way to continue the dictatorship and super exploitation to protect their astronomical wealth. None of them have a way out. Old industries are in decline while the praised new and green ones in no way can economically replace them. “The estimated decline in economic output from China’s older industries has been around six times larger than the impact of the pickup in new growth drivers over the past two years, from 2023 to 2025”, think tank Rhodium Group concluded. They show how infrastructure, property and “old” cars fell from 23% in 2023 to 17% of GDP last year, while EVs, batteries, solar energy etc only increased from 5.5% to 6.3%.
There are several possible scenarios for the continued power struggle and the confrontation with US imperialism. Xi Jinping might have gained an upper hand which could change the regime’s rhetoric in a more aggressive direction. The deep crisis, however, as well as the effects of possible growing purges and more attempts to gain from splits in the Western camp can restrain Beijing from actual confrontations, beyond rhetoric. Clearly, the regime has no way out and will meet growing anger, resistance and internal decay.
The far right’s rise and its problems
The political expression of capitalism’s reactionary turn is the rightward shift in all corners of bourgeois politics. To differing degrees, governments of all shades, from the Trumpist right, to ex-social democracy, sing from the same reactionary hymn sheet of racism, anti-climate policies, nationalism and macho “family values”. In the UK, it was Keir Starmer, not Nigel Farage, who delivered the racist “island of strangers” speech last year. This is because these causes are fundamental to capitalism’s agenda to achieve stability for profit-making and plunder in the 2020s.
In general, the rise of the political right has continued. Pinochet nostalgist Jose Antonio Kast won a landslide victory in Chile’s Presidential election in December, after the disastrous status quo Presidency of Gabriel Boric, who betrayed the legacy of the historic 2019 rebellion which pushed him to power and opened the road to reaction. This is part of the general swinging of the political pendulum to the right in Latin America, together with the return of the right to power in Bolivia after decades of mass rule, and the capture of the Venezuelan government by Trump.
In Europe, far-right parties continue to lead the polls in each of the continent’s four most important declining powers – Britain, France, Germany and Italy. In Japan, the conservative government was re-elected in February with a large majority following Trump fan Takaichi’s election as President last year.
However, the populist and far-right are certainly not without their own problems. For one, in the same way as has already been commented on in relation to Brazil, Trump’s leadership of the global far right is a double-edged sword for his international and European co-thinkers like Le Pen, Farage and Meloni. Trump is deeply unpopular in Europe (and around the world), and far-right “patriots” cannot simply endorse his hostile attacks on the economies and interests of their respective countries. Indeed, when Trump stepped up his campaign to conquer Greenland with the threat of tariffs, Le Pen, Meloni and Farage were all forced to offer robust words of criticism.
Despite their growing popularity, the most fundamental problem these political forces face is the mass opposition to their hateful policies. This is the fundamental reason why France’s Rassemblement Nationale has continued to fail to take power, despite leading the polls for several years. The same could be the fate of Farage’s Reform UK, and Alternative für Deutschland, with electoral systems stacked against their chances of winning parliamentary majorities. In the UK, “tactical voting” has already prevented Reform from winning important by-elections for this reason, though Reform winning power in the context of the ongoing breath-taking collapse of the Labour government, remains a strong possibility.
Complacency in the struggle against the rising right would be fatal. Moreover, the far-right is itself moving further to the right. In the US, white supremacy and Christian nationalism are proudly and brutally preached from the pulpit by the most powerful government in the world. The once-fringe idea of “remigration” – deporting people from non-white backgrounds – is now part of the European right-wing mainstream.
Just how dangerous a prospect these forces winning power is for the international working class must not be understated. ICE’s racist state terror in Minneapolis is a clear warning of what can ensue when the racist right achieves state power. We must also look to Minneapolis to find the starting point for a socialist program to defeat them: working-class struggle.
Workers and the oppressed cannot rely on any party, wing or faction of the capitalist class to push the extreme-right back. Where the labour movement tail-ends the discredited forces of the old neoliberal order in the name of “lesser evilism,” this will only fuel the rise of the far-right. A Marxist program argues for a socialist opposition to the far right. This means unity in struggle with all those prepared to oppose the far-right, combined with a principled insistence on working class political independence, linked to the demand for mass parties of the working class with a socialist program.
New waves of political struggle
The need for independent working-class political organisation is also expressed in the growth of new reformist phenomena. Despite the repeated defeats suffered by successive left-wing governments, parties, leaders and movements since the 2008 crisis, new openings constantly arise. This is not due to the skills and talents of new parties and individuals but the power of the objective situation and the crises of capitalism, including what Marx called the “whip of counter-revolution”.
The defeat of the mass movement around Bernie Sanders in both 2016 and 2020 did not lead to a permanent lull in left-wing alternatives but was followed by a new upsurge of the left once Trump was re-elected, with the election of Zohran Mamdani the most high-profile expression so far. In Britain, only five years after the crushing defeat of Corbynism in the Labour Party, the biggest independent socialist party since WWII was born, and the Green Party (under a new left-wing leader) is surging in membership and support. The whip of counter-revolution in Germany revived the seemingly-moribund Die Linke to its strongest state in years.
However, while setbacks and defeats have been shaken off in this way, which also shows the resilience of the working class and young people, what has not been shaken off is the fundamental reason for these defeats in the first place – reformism itself. At the present time, the bankruptcy of reformism is perhaps best expressed in the severe crisis which has plagued the birth of Your Party, which is currently holding internal elections to its inaugural Central Executive Committee (CEC).
Many of the possibilities presented by the party’s explosive beginning, with 800,000 people signing up to participate within days and some opinion polls showing 15% support, have been squandered by a bureaucratic clique. The political approach of Your Party’s unelected interim leadership is based on continuity with the failures of Corbynism and their political offering for the future of YP – represented by the slate named ‘The Many’ in the CEC elections – is one of a repackaged Labour 2.0. ISA in England, Wales & Scotland remains fully committed to building YP as a socialist party based on working-class struggle and internal democracy. To this end, we are actively building support for the Grassroots Left slate for the CEC, which is backed by Zarah Sultana.
Despite the fact that YP as a whole has not overcome the pitfalls of reformism, the nature of the debates taking place within it do represent a very important shift to the left, in response to both the objective situation and the failures of Corbynism. This is reflected in the very radical (if vague) political statement which was passed at YP’s founding conference in November which goes far beyond the bland “peace and justice” banalities of 2015-19 Corbynism and commits the party – on paper – to fighting for a “democratic and socialist transformation” and the public ownership of key sectors and services. Zarah Sultana’s evolution even further to the left is also hugely significant.
The role of Marxists is to highlight and amplify these steps forward, while at the same time stressing the need for revolutionary socialist organisation within the broader movement in order to translate these words on paper into reality on the ground, and build YP as a powerful force armed with a socialist transitional program. As well as combatting reformism in our work surrounding broader left formations Marxists must also be prepared to encounter what Trotsky called “centrism”. This does not refer to what commentators today call “centrist” politicians – “centre-right” and “centre-left” bourgeois parties – but to those who brandish (sometimes very) revolutionary rhetoric but who are reformist in practice. The history of the labour movement knows many examples of tendencies prepared to wax lyrical about socialist revolution but who in practice saw it as a task for the dim and distant future.
In the United States, the success of Mamdani will be seen as a blueprint for others to follow. Unfortunately, this can include the worst aspect of his blueprint – participation in the billionaires’ Democratic Party. His recent endorsement of thoroughly corporate politician Kathy Hochul for New York state governor is an indication of the pitfalls of this approach. While socialists in the US enthusiastically engage in campaigns like Mamdani’s, advocating a class struggle-based strategy to win a pro-working-class program, we also clearly make the decisive case for a break from the Democrats and a new working-class party with socialist policies.
How can the working class win?
Reference has been made throughout this document to the key factor which shapes world perspectives from a Marxist point of view: the class struggle. This will be the decisive determining factor in whether Donald Trump and US imperialism is pushed back as well as how much of his reactionary agenda he can force through at home. Experience has already shown what Marxists have consistently explained to be true: neither China, nor any capitalist power, nor Congress, nor the courts will stop Trump.
The battle of Minneapolis and the Italian general strikes against genocide show the way forward. An accurate understanding of the role which these episodes, marked by the working-class showing a glimpse of its power, played in pushing governments back is crucial. The labour movement cannot allow the lie to be swallowed that ICE agents leaving Minneapolis, or European governments’ gestures in opposition to Israel’s genocide came about for any other reason. Once our class understands more of its power, it will be more encouraged to use it.
The question of the strike, and the general strike in particular, is now crucial. ISA emphasises the importance of strike movements at the same time as we stress the need for proper preparations in the unions, politically and organisationally. The call for a one-day strike needs to be followed by a plan for escalated strikes.
If anything approaching a national general strike takes place in the US in May, it can set an extraordinary example for the working-class movement internationally. What makes such action so important is not just that it is taking place in the US, but that it is political strike action. For Marxists, the chief political importance of a general strike is that it shows not just the economic power of the working class, but its political power to change, and ultimately run, society. If the working class is organised and equipped with a revolutionary leadership, general strikes can be truly revolutionary in nature.
An escalation of the international fightback of this nature is crucial. The mass uprising in Iran mentioned earlier shared many of the most encouraging characteristics of the ‘Gen Z revolts’ – its youthfulness, and above all the energy and heroism on display by the masses. At the same time, however, it mirrored the weaknesses of all mass movements in the past period: most importantly, the lack of clear working-class organisation and leadership at its heart. This lack of leadership and democratic organisation has even been upheld as a model by some. This has opened the door for ad hoc leaders that can be lured into derailing the struggle or be integrated into the establishment. Lack of a clear socialist program leads to exhaustion that will be exploited by repression and counter-revolution. Providing a program which points to overcoming these limitations is the most important task for Marxists today.
