Trudeau is going, but the uncertainty and turbulence are not over. The Liberals are scrambling to choose a new leader by March 9, and very soon after that they will face electoral defeat.
Storm clouds of Trump’s new presidency loom with his threats of 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods and his proposal to make Canada the 51st state.
Liberals Limping to Defeat
After months of slow death agony, the crumbling Liberal government is now near its demise. Whenever the election occurs, the Liberal Party faces humiliating defeat. A change of leader will not save it. Neither will the attack ads now popping up against Poilievre. The Democrats tried both on Trump, and they failed, as people are hurting and angry. The Liberals could be reduced to a few dozen MPs.
Voters are fed up with rising prices, stagnant living standards, unaffordable housing, a decaying health care system, declining public services — all overseen by complacent and out-of-touch politicians. For example, 49 percent of people in BC believe they will go deeper into debt to pay their expenses. Around the world voters are punishing the governing party.
Unfortunately, for the working class, the main beneficiary of the collapse of Liberal support is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Many voters are angry at the NDP for supporting Trudeau and his policies for two and half years.
Poilievre’s Angry Words Hide his Attacks
The conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have done a good job of presenting themselves as a party that cares for ordinary people. They have channeled people’s anger. Poilievre is very good at seeming to be angry.
On policies he has been vague beyond the very popular “Axe the Tax,” as people hope, incorrectly, that cutting the carbon tax will improve their living standards. His other big slogan “Common Sense,” has no concrete meaning.
A careful read of the Conservative’s 2023 Policy Declaration reveals a different and scary story. It talks (sometimes in coded language) of more tax cuts for big business and the rich, privatizing and cutting public services, attacking unions, cutting pensions for some workers, building more oil pipelines, extracting more oil and minerals from offshore sites, privatizing health services, attacking trans rights, privatizing Indigenous reserve lands, trying 14-year old children as adults, moving the Canadian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and increasing military spending.
While the next Conservative government probably won’t launch all these policies on day one, their election will embolden the far right to step up attacks on Indigenous and trans people and environmental activists.
While there is a core of Canadians who support these policies, they are a minority. For example, a Leger poll in August 2024 found just 25 percent of Canadians are in favour of increased privatization of health care. Abacus’s 2024 poll found that increasing taxes on the richest 1 percent, making public transit free and making universities and colleges free for students were popular with at least 70 percent of Canadians. An astounding 88% of Canadians support a wealth tax. Yet none of these are conservative policies. If anything, the Conservatives will do the opposite — cut taxes for the rich and continue the underfunding of transit and universities.
Another theme of the Tories’ Declaration is to aggressively “eliminate red tape” and “streamline regulation.” This is a coded way of saying that they will weaken protection from unscrupulous bosses and landlords of people’s health and safety and the environment. The track record in Canada shows that existing regulations are not being fully enforced. Supermarkets (including Loblaws and Walmart) illegally sell underweight meat. Mining companies pollute the environment. Seven people died in a fire in an illegally rented building in old Montreal, which had multiple safety violations including a lack of smoke detectors. This year, listeria in plant-based milk alternatives killed three people, yet the factory where it was made had not been inspected for several years prior to the outbreak. In 2022, there were 993 workplace fatalities recorded in Canada, most likely a significant underestimate. The Tories cutting red tape will lead to more pollution, deaths and illness.
Poilievre claims to be on the side of working people and unions. Yet, when he was in Harper’s cabinet, he consistently attacked unions. How long, when he is back in government, before unions and workers come under attack? Strong, independent unions are the best protection for all workers, unionized or not.
Trump Danger
So far Poilievre has said little on how he would respond to Trump’s threat of 25 percent tariffs and talk of taking over Canada as the 51st state. While it is not clear how much of this Trump will do, he is serious.
Dealing with Trump’s actions and their impacts will probably be the defining feature of Poilievre’s government. If Trump implements all his tariff threats, Canada, and much of the world, will be plunged into recession. Trump’s moves to conquer Greenland or Panama or ramp up pressures on China could threaten war.
Unaffordable Homes
Poilievre successfully harkens back to a bygone time when most workers could afford to buy a home. This era is long gone. It was destroyed — not by Trudeau’s policies but — by the destruction of public home-building programs in the 1990s and handing housing over to speculators and big landlords. The Liberals did throw money at the developers, which boosted construction but most of the housing built is unaffordable.
Poilievre has absolutely no intention of launching a massive program to build good quality, publicly owned rental housing — the only way to tackle the housing crisis.
Weak NDP
In early 2022 the NDP tied themselves to Trudeau. This was a major mistake. The gains have been small (partial dental and pharma care) and the odium the NDP has gained for supporting Trudeau far outweighs the gains. Socialist Alternative warned of this at the time.
Historically, young people have leaned to the NDP and the left. In 2015 young people were among the most enthusiastic voters for Trudeau’s radical-sounding promises. Now they are deeply disillusioned. However, the NDP has not gained their support. A big proportion of those who will vote for Poilievre will do so to kick out the Liberals. Abacus found that 40 percent of likely Tory votes are against the Liberals, rather than strongly supporting Poilievre. It is Poilievre’s rhetoric and style, not his policies, that are popular. Workers are angry but see no answer from the NDP. If the NDP had been a strong pro-worker opposition, kept its independence and argued and campaigned both in and outside of Parliament for better policies it would be in a much stronger place.
Organize and Resist
Too many people think elections decide everything in politics. This is not the case. Most of the important gains of working people — from the right to vote, to the right to strike, from public health to limited environmental protection — were won outside of elections. The pressure of campaigns, strike action and the strength of movements eventually forced the politicians to act.
Workers, union members, Indigenous people and environmentalists need to prepare to resist the Tories’ attacks. Governments can and have been defeated by mass movements. The postal workers’ strike of 1981 won maternity leave, which eventually became parental leave for all Canadians. The mass resistance of Indigenous people forced Pierre Trudeau to abandon his attack on their rights. The list of victories won by struggle is long.
While in the short-term Poilievre may not launch an all-out attack, workers should not doubt that Poilievre’s government will cut services, attack workers, Indigenous people and environmental activists. Contrary to some, Socialist Alternative will not put energy into trying to persuade people to vote NDP or Liberal (that time has long past, given the Liberals’ many failures with NDP support), now is the time to start preparing and organizing.
Often, resistance starts with small meetings discussing what to do, then drawing up demands, writing leaflets, and putting up posters. Organizing also means reaching out and building connections. It will take patience and determination to build mass movements to resist Poilievre. Socialist Alternative will help to build resistance by working with union members and activists who are doing the same.
Political Vacuum
In the article critical of the Liberal-NDP agreement in 2022 we wrote: “This agreement is one further step along the continuum towards vacating the left … eventually, the centre will not hold. The Liberals, supported by the NDP, will open the door for a right-populist Prime Minister.”
The best answer to right-wing populism is bold socialist policies that will provide good jobs and public services, and defend the environment and human rights. Alongside union struggles and movements, Canadians desperately need a political voice that speaks for them. Such a party would have a vibrant active membership, with democratic rights and debates, that campaigns in communities and on the streets all year round.
Unfortunately, the NDP is not such a party. Its focus is on elections and what happens in Parliament. It lacks an active membership — most members only get asked for money and to do some campaigning during an election. The leadership decides policies, often in contradiction to what the members want.
The forces to create a party that fights for the working class, either through a total transformation of the NDP in a serious struggle or by taking the road to build a new party, do not exist today. Building resistance to Poilievre and the experiences of joint struggle can lay the foundations for such a party.
Socialist Alternative is building resistance now and will energetically participate in building a fighting party for the working class. Join Socialist Alternative today and help to win working-class victories!
