Every day we see new reasons for the urgency of defeating Bolsonaro: the deaths caused by torrential rains, rising prices and hunger, the sabotage of the vaccination of children against Covid, new racist murders, privatisations, social cuts and the impact of mining and release of agrotoxins.

Despite numerous crises and protests, the Bolsonaro government has survived so far and the debate is increasingly focused on the elections. However, the defeat of Bolsonaro and neoliberalism is not limited to what happens at the ballot box.

There is no way to win this war without strengthening the struggles and attacking the causes that led to the emergence of the Bolsonaro monster. If not, we run the risk that the extreme right will not only survive, but have the possibility of returning strengthened in the next period.

In this situation, PSOL has a fundamental role in putting forward a socialist alternative that can defeat Bolsonaro in the streets, at the ballot box and after the elections.

At first glance, the task seems simple: vote for Lula and everything goes back to normal.

However, Bolsonaro did not appear out of nowhere. It was the previous “normality” that generated this monster and Lula is demonstrating that he has learnt nothing from the mistakes that brought us here.

Lula is betting on the illusion that it is possible to come out of the crisis and improve the lives of the people without a rupture not only with capitalism, but even with neoliberal policies in general.

The policy of alliances with the centre and the right, which prevented structural changes and opened space for coups, remains, now crowned with the agreement to put Geraldo Alckmin forward as his vice-president.

Alckmin was for more than a decade the main public figure of the bourgeoisie and the neoliberal project in Brazil, as governor of São Paulo and presidential candidate, as well as supporting the coup against Dilma.

There is no left front with Lula

That is why it is a great mistake to create the illusion that there is the possibility of a left front with Lula, as the majority of the PSOL leadership does.

It makes no sense to repeat today the legitimate tactics used by the socialist left until 2002, when calls were made for Lula not to make alliances with the bourgeoisie and to adopt a socialist program. The PT ruled the country for 13 years without any rupture with the political and economic system. Even during the coup of 2016 and Lula’s imprisonment in 2018, they maintained their defense of the rotten institutions of this system.

Nor is this a one-off tactic to show the limits of Lula’s candidacy. This would only have credibility if the PSOL were building its own pre-candidacy, to show that there is an alternative plan.

The plan A and B of the PSOL majority is an alliance with Lula, and the signals that are being given off by the PSOL leadership are that this does not change with Alckmin. They merely argue for some improvement on programmatic points.

Lula may defend the end of the spending cap, but combined with gestures towards “fiscal responsibility”. He has already raised the possibility of revising parts of the labor reform. Lula will not repeal the social security reform, but he may adjust some of it. However, these measures will not be enough to reverse the deep social crisis we are experiencing.

The PSOL executive’s February 11 resolution talks about opening negotiations about the composition of its electoral slate, but also about PSOL’s role in coordinating Lula’s campaign, showing that his program and Alckmin’s presence will not deter them.

The resolution also minimizes the criticism of the PT itself, explaining how the situation has worsened “since the resumption of the neoliberal agenda.” Obviously, the Temer and Bolsonaro governments have deepened and worsened the neoliberal attacks, but it is wrong to give the impression that during the PT governments there was no neoliberal agenda.

The PT governments combined social measures with maintaining the entire neoliberal agenda of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments, adding measures like the neoliberal pension reform, the PPP law, etc., in addition to harsh fiscal austerity and a version of the spending cap in the last Rousseff government.

Even after the coup, the PT held the struggles back and subordinated them to electoral strategy, such as after the April 2017 general strike, where there was the possibility of overthrowing the illegitimate Temer government. However, the PT’s line was to center energies on Lula’s reelection in 2018, something that the “thieving judge” Sergio Moro managed to sabotage (by imprisoning Lula). Again, in 2021 no real weight was thrown behind the mobilizations for “Fora Bolsonaro”, since the line was to bleed Bolsonaro, but not overthrow him.

PSOL has played an important role in showing another path, first as a left opposition to the PT governments and then to the governments of Temer and Bolsonaro, fighting the right and promoting struggles.

The party managed to strengthen itself in the last elections, with its own program and candidacies, even if at times space was limited. This was the case of Guilherme Boulos’ Presidential candidacy in 2018, which won only 0.6%, but which contributed to winning elected positions in councils and parliaments and advances in the 2020 elections. However, the party’s current line of adherence to Lula’s candidacy is jeopardizing this trajectory.

Independent PSOL candidate will contribute to Bolsonaro’s defeat

There is no doubt that the defeat of Bolsonaro is the central theme for these elections. PSOL must make it explicit that we will vote for Lula in the second round to defeat Bolsonaro, as we did in 2018. We are even willing to withdraw our candidacy and call the vote for Lula in the first round if there is any risk of having two right wing candidates in the second round.

But it is crucial that the socialist left has a political expression in this process, defending anti-capitalist and socialist policies.

A candidacy of the socialist left in the first round doesn’t get in the way of, but rather helps to fight Bolsonaro. The role of a socialist candidacy in this scenario would be to present the necessary program to defeat the right, Bolsonarism and the neoliberal agenda, which we know Lula will not present. Its focus would be on confronting Bolsonaro and not polarizing against Lula.

Dismantling its own profile

The threat of dismantling the independent profile of PSOL goes beyond supporting Lula in the first round. There is a risk that this policy will be repeated in important states, such as supporting the candidacy of Marcelo Freixo, who has moved increasingly to the center since leaving the PSOL, for governor of Rio de Janeiro.

The pre-candidacy of Guilherme Boulos in São Paulo is being maintained for now, but is under strong pressure to be withdrawn from the PT, which wants to guarantee the election of Fernando Haddad. However, the weight given by PSOL to the argument of the need to unify the “left” to defeat the traditional right, minimizing the political criticism of the PT, weakens the candidacy of Boulos to the extent that Haddad is ahead in the polls.

The electoral scenario of polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro may diminish PSOL’s space in the elections. The party also lost important figures in Rio de Janeiro, which was a strong electoral base. But the worst mistake the PSOL can make in this scenario is to dilute its differences with the PT instead of showing that it has an alternative project.

The risk of not overcoming the threshold for state financing has opened up the proposal for PSOL to form a “party federation” with the Rede Sustentabilidade (Sustainability Network), further lowering the party’s profile. The Rede is not a leftist or class project. On the contrary, one of their leading members, Marina Silva, called for a vote for Aécio Neves of the traditional right wing PSDB . Together with fellow Rede member Heloísa Helena, Silva advocates a vote for Ciro Gomes, a “centrist” candidate in this year’s presidential race. A federation goes far beyond an electoral coalition. It is valid for four years and at all levels: national, state and municipal, with a joint program.

The struggle does not end with elections

The logic of the PSOL majority policy also opens the possibility of participation in a future Lula government, which would be a serious mistake. The party must maintain an independent posture and build the basis for a left opposition.

It is likely that by adopting conciliatory and moderate positions without making structural transformations in the economic and political system, a Lula government will push the left into a new demoralization. If there is no left alternative to Lulism, this could end up opening space for a resurgence of the right or extreme right.

That is why the fight against the extreme right in Brazil cannot be limited to the electoral process. It is a social and political struggle that takes place in the streets, neighborhoods, workplaces, schools and universities and it will continue no matter who wins the elections.

The coming weeks and months will be decisive for the future of the PSOL as the axis of the process of the left’s reorganization. We will fight for the PSOL electoral conference in April to reject the line of adherence to the PT and Lula and launch our own candidacy, in alliance with parties and organizations of the socialist left and combative social movements, and to raise an anti-capitalist and socialist program of rupture with neoliberalism and the system that created Bolsonaro, capitalism.