In its third week, the US-Israel war on Iran is not going as Donald Trump wished, to put it mildly. What Trump envisioned as a demonstration of strength and another “easy victory” following his January operation in Venezuela, is instead going down in history as a gigantic miscalculation.
Its consequences now dominate the concerns of governments and the capitalist class internationally. In particular, the world economy, energy and food production are fundamentally shaken by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian regime that has not collapsed.
NATO and Asian allies have not acceded to Trump’s threatening appeals for them to again act as vassals to Trump and Netanyahu’s war in the Gulf. It’s a highly unpopular war conducted without a plan. Comparisons are often made with the 2003 war on Iraq and even with the Vietnam war. The limits of US imperialism and Trump’s presidency are being laid bare.
Trump declared victory in the first 24 hours and has done so repeatedly since. His first promises to open the Strait were made over a week ago. Already then, The Economist used the headline “Donald Trump must stop soon”. It is, however, hard to see how he can, since it would be a humiliating retreat. The most likely scenario is therefore that the war will go on for some time, more likely to escalate than finish soon. As in every war, there will of course be new twists and turns.
Here are 10 points about the war, as of March19.
1. A global war
The war on Iran is spreading militarily. Into its third week, US imperialism is ordering drones from Ukraine which has sent over 300 operatives to the region at Trump’s behest. They are also moving THAAD missile systems and troops from Asia to the Middle East and even considering using Kurdish ground troops.
On Sunday 15 March, Trump also urged a number of traditional US allies to join an attempt to secure transport through the Strait of Hormuz. He said it would be “very bad” if NATO allies did not comply. He reminded Japan and South Korea they both have 45,000 US troops stationed in bases there. In the same sequence, he even urged China to participate, and has postponed his planned visit, which was supposed to start on March 31. Just a week earlier he had mocked Keir Starmer, stating “we don’t need” British aircraft carriers since the war was “already won!”
It is unclear, however, what kind of assistance he is demanding, apart from offering Iran a larger number of targets. So far, Iran has attacked 19 ships in the Strait, with more than 1,000 waiting inside the Gulf.
After the abject failure of their policy of endless flattery and concessions to Trump last year, governments are now unwilling to further enter into this very unpopular war. While many, including Britain and France, are already actively engaged in the war on the US-Israeli side, they are determined to keep their distance. The German government, which initially made comments supporting the war, now declares “it is not our war” (Defence Minister Pistorius). Macron offered to send France’s carrier to the Strait only when the war has ended and even Starmer stated the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war.” Japan, Australia and Greece have also refused.
The war will further destroy what is left of the Western Alliance, again proving US imperialism as threatening and unreliable. NATO is hanging by a thread. The ruling classes in Europe, in particular, will therefore put even more resources and propaganda into their own military build up. The effect is similar among Trump’s until now close friends in the Gulf states that have been plunged into a nightmare by US and Israeli imperialism.
US imperialism’s main conflict with Chinese imperialism is a key factor behind Trump’s actions in Venezuela, around Greenland and now in Iran. US imperialism wants to exploit the deep crisis in the Chinese economy and within the regime.
For Xi Jinping, the visit of Trump would have propaganda value, emphasising China’s strength as part of the “G2” – two equal superpowers. This would be useful to Xi in the ongoing power struggle.
In reality, Beijing has been forced to retreat, both when its allies have been attacked and in the never-ending trade negotiations. The latter was again shown in this week’s negotiations in Paris involving US Secretary of finance Bessent, prior to the planned summit. “According to Bessent, the discussions focused mainly on purchase commitments from China. US officials also explained how the White House would press ahead with tariffs and the Section 301 investigations Washington was conducting” (South China Morning Post). At the same time, Beijing’s propaganda will of course exploit a humiliation of Trump in the Middle East and portray itself as a stable “anti-war” power.
2. Already won the war?
Stopping a sharp downturn in the world economy provoked by his war has now become the main goal for Trump. “The White House, which had taken a triumphalist approach to a war in which it wiped out Iran’s top leadership on the first day, underwent a rapid mood shift on Sunday night [8 March] as oil prices soared at the market opening,” the Financial Times reported on 14 March. The killing of Ali Khamenei, and of Ari Larijani on 16 March, by Israel has played a role in the propaganda but not fundamentally changed the war.
Trump is now scrambling to minimise the effects of his own miscalculation. The rhetoric is no longer about a war for regime change, a pre-emptive action to stop an Iranian attack or to support the movement against the Iranian regime – reasons given during the first weeks. Not even to stop Tehran from developing nuclear arms. When asked if the US was retrieving Iran’s 400 kilogram stockpile of enriched uranium, Trump answered “Not at all. We are not focused on that.”
Israel also seems to have dropped its hypocritical calls for “democracy” in Iran, or even regime change. IDF spokesperson Defrin on Monday said the goal was to “weaken the Iranian regime severely.” (CNN 15 March)
The hope the Iranian regime would collapse or capitulate, a major basis for the war, has been destroyed. For the Israeli government this should not really be a surprise. Two years of genocidal war was not enough to force Hamas to capitulate. This is also the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan – to overthrow dictatorships is the revolutionary task of workers and oppressed, not foreign armies.
3. The destruction of Iran
The price for the war is paid by the Iranian population, who in recent years has bravely fought in numerous mass movements against the regime. Close to 1,500 civilians have been killed and over 18,000 wounded, according to official figures from Iran.
According to Al Jazeera and the Iranian Red Cross, “18,180 commercial buildings and business facilities in the Iranian capital have been damaged or destroyed” and in the whole country “more than 36,500 civilian units have been damaged.”
The US claims to have hit more than 7,000 targets in two weeks of bombing. Among them are at least 77 health care facilities and several schools. Many attacks are planned using AI, increasing their speed and intensity enormously.
4. The mood in Iran
The war crushed a new protest movement developing among students at the end of February. The destruction and constant bombings have changed the minds of many Iranians who were initially in favour of the war, hoping it would lead to regime change and democratic rights. “It seems they are striking everywhere: homes, schools, mosques, hospitals,” said Javad, who like most people who spoke from inside Iran, asked that his full name be withheld for fear of retaliation. From 10 p.m. to past midnight, people in Tehran, the Iranian capital, could hear the sound of bombing “north, south, east and west,” he said. “If they keep hitting Tehran like this for another 10 days,” he added, “nothing will remain of Tehran.” (New York Times)
Other reports talk about anger over appeals to take to the streets in the midst of the bombing. “Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, a growing number of Iranians who saw [exiled “crown prince”] Reza Pahlavi as an alternative to the ruling establishment say they are losing faith in the exiled opposition figure.” (Middle East Eye)
It is of course hard to judge the mood, especially when the internet is still down. The regime is still hated, but the mood against the bombings seems to dominate. This was confirmed when the “Revolutionary Guard” recently stated that protesters would face an “even stronger response than January 8” (when protesters were massacred).
5. The whole region
The Gulf autocracies, until recently marketed as paradise for wealthy tourists, finance companies and global travel lines, are severely shaken by a war most wanted to avoid. On Monday 17 March, Dubai airport, one of the most frequented in the world, had to close for some hours. Among targets hit by over 3,400 missiles from Iran are also Qatar’s main Liquified Natural Gas factory, refineries, other airports and US military bases. “The US appears to have underestimated the scale of Iran’s response”, the Financial Times concluded in an article with the headline “Iran surpasses expectations with scale of counterattack”.
And it can still get much worse. Most Gulf States have used a large share of their interceptors. Iran has the capability to cause much more chaos with attacks on desalination facilities, oil pipelines that are used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and electricity hubs. The Houthis in Yemen, allies of Iran that have still not entered the fray, could attack ships in the Red Sea and also send missiles into Saudi Arabia.
The threshold for Gulf States to get involved directly in the war in an offensive capacity is still high. It increases risk for retaliation, but it can also leave them on their own if Trump decides to end the US war. With continued escalation, however, there can be a scenario where the war expands, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervening. This would provoke uproar among the Gulf’s working class and poor masses.
6. Lebanon’s plight
The Israeli government has its own agenda. Lebanon is experiencing a full-scale war, with more than one million forced to flee their homes and over 1,000 killed by Israel’s war. It is clear that the Israeli government does not aim to finish this war soon. This is linked to Netanyahu’s plans for Gaza and West Bank, continued attacks and ethnic cleansing, burying any talk of “rebuilding Gaza”. (See a fuller analysis here)
The war has also extended to Iraq, despite both the Baghdad government and the Kurdish rulers in Erbil wishing to stand aside. Pro-Iranian Shia groups have attacked US targets and Iran has attacked Kurdish and US bases in the north. Iraqi oil production has also been targeted.
7. A long war?
At this stage it does not look as if the war will end soon. The official spokesperson for the Israeli army on Monday 16 March stated that there would be another three weeks or more of war on Iran. Trump on the other hand wants to leave as soon as possible, but has been forced at least temporarily to pause a withdrawal, unable to describe the war as a victory so long as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues amid other potential escalations.
The US is also undermined after using “years of critical munitions since the start of the war,” including Tomahawk missiles. (Financial Times) This is the reason for now moving arms from Japan and South Korea. Instead of projecting military strength, this war has put a spotlight on US military limitations, a fact which will be keenly observed by adversaries in Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and elsewhere.
8. World economy
Warnings of long-term damage to the world economy are increasing, according to the latest from the Bank of International Settlements. Its report says inflation and interest rates will go up, leading to stock markets and financial markets losing value and government budget deficits increasing. These trends are already present.
The dependence of oil has been made even more than clear with this war. The price is now over $100 a barrel and continued increases forced the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels, a third of its stock and its largest release ever by far.
Trump assuring that this is temporary has not calmed the markets. He has also eased sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, making Moscow a double winner from the increased oil price.
More oil production facilities can still be affected. This all takes place at the same time as the ongoing trade war and worries of a financial bubble.
9. The Strait of Hormuz
Now everyone, including Trump, knows the importance of the Strait. Iran is controlling the transport route from its coastal and mainland bases. It is not an easy task to sort out, writes Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times: “the strait will be extremely hard for America to reopen. Sending American troops to secure the coastline is a non-starter, given the size of the force required; Iran could also just continue shooting from inland.”
The US attack on Kharg island, from which Iran exports most of its oil, was a warning to Tehran, but it had no effect on the Strait blockade. Using ground troops would still be even more unpopular in the US while far from guaranteeing success.
It is not just oil that causes huge global effects. Qatar is the largest exporter of Liquified Natural Gas and the price of LNG has increased more than the oil price. Then there is the export of key ingredients for fertilisers used in food production. Already, factories producing fertilisers in Bangladesh and Pakistan have stopped production.
The effect of Iran’s asymmetric warfare, focusing on the global energy markets, have had the most effect in Asia so far. High price hikes on fuel, shortening of working weeks and rationing of electricity have been implemented in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand and other countries.
10. The anti-war action needed
The ruling classes globally are conducting wars or preparing for wars. That is the period of nationalism, reaction and wars which their rule is offering, as representatives of the global capitalist and imperialist system.
No governments or state armies will offer a way forward. Some on the left are mistakenly supporting the dictatorial regime in Iran, or are silent about it, in the name of opposing the US-Israeli war. Others are hoping the bombing will have an effect against the capitalist islamist regime.
What is needed is a global working-class struggle against the imperialist war on Iran, and in support of the struggle of workers and the oppressed in Iran and throughout the region. The struggle against war must be a struggle from below, against militarism, dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, capitalism and imperialism.
